Buying and Selling: April 2012 Archives

A few days ago, I had an agent get angry at me about an offer below a range asking price. I had submitted the offer with extensive justification as to why it was an appropriate offer. Basically, this clown had overpriced the property, and thought that because he had put a range on it, people were somehow not supposed to make offers outside the range.

Just because you put range pricing on a property, does not, by itself, mean anything. As I've said before, you can ask for any price you want for your property. It doesn't mean the asking price is realistic. It means that you own the property and have the ability to put a price on the property that you want. This doesn't do you any good if the price is above what similar properties are selling for. Having been told it's for sale, buyers have the same options the seller does - they can offer any price they would be happy paying. The seller doesn't have to accept. In fact, the seller probably won't accept. If the buyer offers less than the property is really worth, than the seller is correct to reject the offer. On the other hand, if the buyer is offering what the property is really worth and the seller doesn't accept the offer, they are hurting only themselves.

Many sellers and their agents are shooting themselves in both feet by overpricing the property. When I originally wrote this, there were some special circumstances in effect - the lending panic, to be precise. It's mostly psychological, as there are any number of very solvent lenders willing and able to fund loans, but hysterical reporting grabs attention (which is why reporters do it). The net effect is that many buyers who would otherwise be in the market were still sitting on the sidelines, and so the ratio of sellers to buyers locally had ballooned to 47 to 1. Imagine yourself in a situation where the ratio of men to women is 47 to 1. The social dynamics are going to favor the women. Even if she's a fat slovenly harridan at the tail end of middle age, she's going to have her pick of men. The men, for their part, are going to have be both good looking and well off to attract even the woman in the previous sentence, and keep working hard to keep the woman around. If you're not willing to do what it takes, and keep doing what it takes, you might as well not bother. Now imagine that people who want to sell are the men, and people who are willing to buy are the women. If you're not willing to out-compete the other 46 sellers, why is your property on the market? If you need to sell, then you need to do what is necessary to out-compete those other sellers. Make it pretty. Make it cheap. And you still better be willing to work when an offer comes calling. If you're not, get the property off the market until the climate changes. I told you when I originally wrote this that I didn't think it was going to be long.

It was longer than I thought, but my market at least has changed. We now have people looking for relatively safe places to stash their cash, places that look likely to return an eventual profit, and real estate heads the list.

Range pricing a property at a value you're not willing to accept is a waste of everybody's time. There was a property on the market variable priced over $125,000 range, and my client made a very strong offer about $15,000 over the minimum. Lots of cash, good deposit, short escrow, no contingencies, etcetera. Under the circumstances, a very good offer considering what the property was really worth. Yet despite all the information we put in front of them, this seller kept countering at the same number, which was more than my client was willing to pay for that property. Net result: the whole process was a waste from the time we started driving to the property. Yes, they got a lot of activity, but since they weren't willing to sell for the price that generated the activity - or anything like that price - the property didn't sell. Since if the property doesn't sell, every penny you put into trying to sell is wasted, as is every second of your time, plus all of the carrying costs that you may incur. So the listing agent told me they'd had a dozen showings in a week - but if they're looking at the property because it's variable priced $75,000 below any offer the seller is willing to consider, well, self-stimulation may feel good but it doesn't produce anything. This entire situation is a failing on behalf of the listing agent, who is theoretically earning money because of their knowledge of the market and should know precisely how likely it is that buyers will agree to pay more than the comparable properties are selling for, which is to say, Not. In a 47 to 1 buyer's market, if you need to sell, you're almost certainly going to have to settle for less than comparable properties are asking. If you don't need to sell, get your property off the market until it changes. The sooner excess inventory clears, the sooner the turn towards sellers is going to happen. Not to mention your days on market keep climbing, and there's nothing beneficial about having a failed listing in a property's immediate past. The longer it sits unsold now, the harder it's going to be to sell for a good price later. But in a seller's market, things are different. For one thing, buyer's don't have all that power - sellers do. That's why they call them "buyer's market" and "seller's market": Who has the power.

Properly used, variable or range pricing can increase the sales price of a property. But the catch is that it must still be priced correctly. Range pricing is not an excuse for a lazy or incompetent listing agent to build owner expectations above market level. The rule of thumb is that the bottom of the range should never be lower than a good "all cash, no contingencies" offer, and the top of the range should never be more than market plus a reasonable premium for dealing with the uncertainties of financing and contingencies. Both figures should be modified downwards if the seller is asking for something extra in the way of consideration from the buyer - for example, leasebacks of more than a week or two, seller contingencies, etcetera.

When I originally wrote this, the way the market was in most of the country, I was inclining against range pricing. If it's priced correctly, that range is information I can use as a buyer's agent. Why would I want to hand the other side information I could put to use were I on the other side, especially when they already have the whip hand in negotiations? Range pricing is something that's primarily useful for sellers when the sellers have the power, and back then, it was the buyers that have the power. If it's not useful for the seller, why in the world would you want to put range pricing on a property? With blortloads of highly upgraded properties for sale then, I had absolutely no hesitation in telling my buyer clients to offer what we think the property is worth to them under the circumstances, and let the sellers decide if they want to do what's necessary to get the property sold. If they don't want to play, somebody else will. Either way, the buyers are happy. This seller can either decide they'll be happy with an appropriate amount of money, or the property can sit unsold. Which is pretty much the situation as it always is. Since then, my local market has changed - particularly with regard to what Mr. and Mrs. Average First Time Homebuyer see as an attractive property.

Range pricing is not a panacea. Range pricing is not something lazy or fearful agents can use to "buy" a listing with impunity, confident it'll work out in the end (it won't). Range pricing is not an excuse not to price your property to market, or not to negotiate hard with all of the facts at your disposal (if you don't have enough favorable facts at your disposal as to what comparable properties are selling for, your negotiating position is not strong). Range pricing is a way to offer clues to buyers and get them to the table with an appropriate offer when sellers have significantly more negotiating power than buyers. Range pricing is something to use sparingly when sellers have no power. There's nothing that says buyers have to offer you what you want. Not now, not ever. The only leverage sellers have over buyers is the fact that if this buyer won't offer something that is appropriate, somebody else will. That's very weak leverage when there's 47 properties on the market for every buyer, but it's much stronger when properties are flying off the market like they were in late 2008 and early 2009.

Caveat Emptor

Original article here

About half the listings around here do not have a single number asking price, but rather a range in which "offers will be considered". Even many agents have trouble understanding range pricing. I've seen and heard more than one agent rail against it, saying that it is essentially "repricing the home".

Range pricing began in Australia and was brought to the United States by a certain major real estate chain. That chain is not one I particularly like doing business with, but that doesn't mean range pricing is a bad idea.

Range pricing is a way of starting people talking, and to begin the negotiating process; nothing more. If there's no offer made in the first place, I can guarantee there will be no transaction. The idea of range pricing is to jump start the negotiations.

Range pricing is not appropriate for all properties, nor in all markets. In a buyer's market such as we had when I originally wrote this, I'm certainly more hesitant to use it, as it offers more information as to the owner's state of mind. In a seller's market where prices are rising rapidly and sellers have all the power, it gives an indication as to what a serious offer is and what it is not. In a buyer's market it tells some buyers exactly how much leverage they may have. I'm also more leery of using it on commercial properties.

One thing many agents (and others) misinterpret range pricing to mean is that any old offer inside the range should be accepted. This is the mark of an inexperienced negotiator. If they say offers will be considered between $400,000 and $425,000, that is not the same thing as saying "I want $425,000, but I'll take $400,000." There are many other terms and conditions on a purchase contract besides just the price, and there is no mandate to agree with even a full asking price offer if those other terms are prohibitive. Indeed, an agent who knows how to figure out other terms to offer in place of higher price is likely to save you far more than any commission they earn. Even price is rarely just price. For instance, if I write an offer for $410,000 cash, no contingencies, with a $10,000 deposit, most sellers should rightly treat that as superior to an offer of $425,000 with the seller paying $10,000 of closing costs and only a $2000 deposit, contingent upon financing for sixty days. Note that the seller nets over $4000 more if the latter offer actually closes, but the former is a much stronger offer and if two such offers were to come in and other things were equal, I'd strongly counsel taking the cash offer, especially as the latter offer is indicative of a not very well qualified buyer without much commitment to the idea of purchasing the property, and there would be a high probability that the transaction will not actually close. There are all kinds of terms on purchase contracts, and having a discussion as to what's important to the other side can be a way of making your offer much more attractive without necessarily raising your price. For instance, owner occupants are often understandably nervous about whether the transaction is going to close, and committing large sums to alternative housing before it actually does close. If you can think of a way to address that concern, you're miles ahead of the negotiator who can't. Every situation is different, and what works one time may not be appropriate to even offer the next.

So if I see a property with range pricing of $400,000 to $425,000, I want to educate my buyer clients that an offer of $400,000 even with the seller paying up to $20,000 of closing costs is not within the range indicated. Indeed, as I've said elsewhere for such offers, a $380,000 sales price with the buyer paying their own way is a superior offer from the seller's point of view. If they insist, I must and will submit it, but even in a strong buyer's market I wouldn't be surprised to see it rejected outright with no counteroffer.

In a strong buyer's market, those few buyers willing to purchase properties have an enormous amount of power, and this will always continue when the seller to buyer ratio gets out of whack. So in a buyer's market, I might actually offer significantly less than the asking price range, secure in the knowledge that if this seller rejects it, I'll find something just as good tomorrow where the seller will accept. Some will. So if some won't, so what? You learn to spot the sellers that have the power to refuse, and the ones who have to take anything vaguely reasonable.

Now admittedly, I don't do a lot of listings, as most sellers don't like to listen when I tell them to price their property to the current market if they want to sell. (And if they don't want to sell, why are they talking to me?) But when I'm showing them what the market is like, and what reasonable prices for properties like theirs are right now, I'll ask a couple of questions once I'm convinced they understand. Everyone knows what they want to get for the property, and by the time I'm done, they better understand what a reasonable asking price is and why it's stupid to list for more. But after that, once I've explained that there are offers and then there are offers, and the price isn't the only thing worth paying attention to, I'll then ask them, "Now that you know what a realistic asking price is, what would be the lowest price you would consider selling for, if someone offered everything else you wanted? Great deposit, all cash, no contingencies for financing, etcetera?" Next I'll ask, "How far over the realistic asking price we've agreed on would you require going if the buyer came up with some odious terms: takes possession early, no deposit or not much of one, wants a long escrow, etcetera?" Rebates or seller paid closing costs always raise the necessary price at least dollar for dollar, by the way. A $380,000 offer with no rebate is superior to $400,000 with $20,000 rebate from both buyer's and seller's perspectives. Then, depending upon how much the seller needs to sell, I'll use that information to help me figure the endpoints of the asking range (assuming I'm not just going to use a single asking price). I won't just use either number, of course. But that, together with the state of the market and how much power buyers think they have in the market at the time, will give me a good feel for what the lower number of the range should be.

There is another, entirely different benefit to range pricing is that when the search is done on MLS or its substitutes, the lower number in the range is going to trigger your property coming up on more searches. If you're a listing agent, you know that MLS and MLS substitute buyers are more likely to be aggressive, and often unrealistic, bargain hunters, as opposed to people who really want to live in the neighborhood around this property. MLS inhabitants are not my favorite buyers when I'm listing a property, for that and other reasons. But if this property comes up on their search, they might look, and if they look, they might make an offer my client is happy to accept. If they don't even see it as they're searching, I guarantee no offer will come in from them. So range pricing helps me capture these people's attention. Whether interest, desire, and action follow is anybody's guess. But they might, where without range pricing they definitely wouldn't.

This doesn't mean I should put a lower end price on it that is lower than what the seller is likely to accept. That is just a waste of everyone's time. A buyer sees a property listed for $400,000, goes to look based upon that representation, and decides to make an offer - then it comes back that the seller isn't willing to really consider anything less than $430,000. Furthermore, the seller's time has also been wasted by encouraging that buyer to view the property. If the seller is not willing to consider an offer at that amount, it shouldn't be listed for that amount. If I get offers above minimum asking price that I'm reasonably certain can consummate, I'll even suggest raising the asking price while we consider them or negotiate. If I have an offer on the table for $450,000, it's not likely to be available to someone only willing to offer $420,000, and it is not reasonable or intelligent to have it listed for $420,000.

In short, range pricing, properly done, is not repricing the home, and it is a good way to get the buyer and seller to the table. It is not appropriate for every property in every market, but for those it is appropriate for, it's a useful tool. Properly used in a seller's market, it can even help your seller get a higher price for the property than any single number asking price you'd dare use.

Caveat Emptor

Original here