Middle East prediction

By Dan Melson on June 30, 2005 12:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

ChrisCam talks about a prediction he made for the middle east about three years ago:

About 3 years ago, I was having a discussion with my father about Iraq. I made the statement that I thought the President and his team had nothing short than reshaping the entire Middle East as their primary foreign policy goal. This would be the 21st Century version of the revolutions of 1848 in Europe. A broad, sea-change in that region that would allow its people to live freely and under liberal Democracy instead of under the thumb of the few. This, I said, would be America's generational committment to ensuring that a 9/11 would never happen again. Iraq, I said, was just part of the equation. The whole picture involved Syria, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Iran and Egypt, for starters. It would involve toppling regimes by force if necessary, by fostering grass-roots reform if possible and by diplomatic pressure if effective.

I think I was prescient.

You weren't prescient, Chris. I'm on record as predicting the same thing. It's just that we were both paying attention to what the President was saying, and realized he meant it, something that for some reason very few people believed until after the Iraq invasion when Libya decided to play nice just to be on the safe side. Saddam Hussein obviously didn't believe he meant it. Most of europe didn't believe he meant it. I'm absolutely certain that except for maybe a couple of the smaller states, the arab world didn't believe it.

And that's probably just as well. If those despots had really thought our president meant to install a democratic government in Iraq, our troops would have had a much harder time of it.

One of my favorite (and most parallel to true life) movie scenes is in The Shootist, where John Wayne's character is explaining to ~~Opie~~ Ron Howard's that technical competence is only a small part of the game. Far more important is being willing and mentally ready. Most of the time, by the time the other party figures out that you actually intend to shoot them, you've already done it. It is no less true strategically than tactically.

Tags

politics

Bookmark this on Delicious StumbleUpon Toolbar

Stumble It!

Please be civil. Avoid profanity - I will delete the vast majority of it, usually by deleting the entire comment. To avoid comment spam, a comments account is required. They are freely available, and you can post comments immediately. Alternatively, you may use your Type Key registration, or sign up for one (They work at most Movable Type sites) All comments made are licensed to the site, but the fact that a comment has been allowed to remain should not be taken as an endorsement from me or the site. There is no point in attempting to foster discussion if only my own viewpoint is to be permitted. If you believe you see something damaging to you or some third party, I will most likely delete it upon request.
Logical failures (straw man, ad hominem, red herring, etcetera) will be pointed out - and I hope you'll point out any such errors I make as well. If there's something you don't understand, ask.
Nonetheless, the idea of comments should be constructive. Aim them at the issue, not the individual. Consider it a challenge to make your criticism constructive. Try to be respectful. Those who make a habit of trollish behavior will be banned.

Search my sites or the web!

--Blogads--

blog advertising
--Blogads--

blog advertising --Blogads--
**********

C'mon! I need to pay for this website! If you want to buy or sell Real Estate in San Diego County, or get a loan anywhere in California, contact me! I cover San Diego County in person and all of California via internet, phone, fax, and overnight mail. If you want a loan or need a real estate agent
Professional Contact Information

Questions regarding this website: Contact me!
dm (at) searchlight crusade (dot) net
(Eliminate the spaces and change parentheticals to the symbols, of course)

Essay Requests

Yes, I do topic requests and questions!
If you don't see an answer to your question, please consider asking me via email. I'll bet money you're not the only one who wants to know!

Requests for reprint rights, same email: dm (at) searchlight crusade (dot) net! ----------------- Learn something that will save you money? Want to motivate me to write more articles? Just want to say "Thank You"?
Aggregators
Add this site to Technorati Favorites
Blogroll Me!