Links and Minifeatures 09 07 Wednesday (morning)

I'm back. I took the weekend mostly off, and that turned into a couple extra days due to circumstances. Word to those whose children have yet to start school: NEVER take a school official's word for something until you've got the paper to prove it. I thought something was taken care of and I turned out to be mistaken. I have only myself to blame, of course. Things might be a little unsettled until I finish dealing with that problem but that's life.



I apologize that I do not have a specialty post up this morning. I hope to have something later today, or tomorrow for certain.

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Now this lady has the right idea as to how to deal with rape.



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It appears that President Bush has decided he wants to avoid an extra fight. Bush nominates Roberts for Chief Justice. If confirmed before the Court starts its session at the end of the month, this means that there are no vacant seats (Sandra Day O'Connor's resignation is effective upon the confirmation of her successor, remember). I agree that Roberts is qualified, and the kind of justice I want to see. The additional difficulty I see is that with only two years as a member of the judiciary, nominating him for the Chief Justice's spot raises a psychological bar. It's not insurmountable - Thurgood Marshall got over it easily. I admit that I do hate to see Thomas and Scalia passed over, but as I said Saturday night, promoting either of them to Chief Justice adds a bruising confirmation battle to the list of problems on the President's plate. Robert's relative inexperience as a judge is really only a psychological problem, not a political one.



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Bill Whittle has a new essay up on the subject of our Tribes. Go Read The Whole Thing. NOW!.



He uses a metaphor of "grey" versus "pink" people. I have spent time in both "grey" and "pink" worlds; I have seen the actions Mr. Whittle's words describe. I was a controller for twelve years. The people on the front lines of the FAA are some of the most "grey" people that you will ever meet. They are controlled by "pink" people in the world of politics. The is significant tension between the two, and those who advance off the front lines in the FAA tend to be people who will tell the "pink" people what they want to hear, whether it is the whole truth or not. The FAA has some fine people working for it, but one of these days there will very likely be a disaster brought on by the fact that the "pink" top echelons do not understand that they head a "grey" agency. 9/11 was one small window; nobody told the controllers what was happening, and supervisors refused to kick the alert up off the control floor until it was too late for action.



Since I left that during the Clinton years, I have spent my time in the world of financial planning, and the very "pink" world of real estate. In both cases, the most successful in most circumstances are the people who can blow the most "pink" smoke. They're charming, they act like your friend, they get you to sign on the dotted line because they are so personable, and most of them don't care what happens to you two minutes after they get the commission check. The pink people have been on top for a long time in the real estate world, and we've got a huge looming problem partly because of it. In the investment world, the pink people were completely in control the entire Clinton presidency, and they never really lost their control, they just had to act responsible for a couple of years.



Grey people have it harder in both professions. The reason I quit financial planning was not that I didn't enjoy it (I do) or that I wasn't very good (I was). It was that I tried to give a full and accurate picture. People get nervous when they see the whole picture; they want something that looks like a sure thing and will do business with the person who says they will always make twenty-five percent a year, every year. Well, no matter what I tell you, you are not likely to make twenty-five percent most years. Would you rather do business with someone who tells you the truth or with someone who makes you feel good? But most people who hear the choice between a truthful "average of ten percent per year" and a liar who says "twenty-five percent every year" will choose the liar because it sounds so good and they don't bother to learn that it's BS.



Similarly, in the real estate and mortgage world, you'll hear, "No problem! Buy the big house, you can afford it, and I can get you the loan!" Well, with stated income and similar tricks, the question is not "Can I get the loan?"; that usually only requires the loan officer submitting the the paperwork correctly for the circumstances. The important question is "Should I get you the loan? Is this something you can really live with, or would this put you into an untenable situation?" This is not a question to be asked for my benefit, either as a agent or as a loan officer. It is for the client. Too many have been put into untenable situations in the last several years by agents and loan officers who saw only their commission checks. Only a prolonged period of rapid inflation of real estate prices has made it seem beneficial until now.



It seems to be an inflexible rule that if the "pink" people are left in charge too long, things suffer. But people need to find it out themselves from time to time.



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RINO Sightings is up! Recommended: Dean's World debunks the blame game, Politechnical, Tinkerty Tonk, aTypical Joe who adds his observations to some of mine above (and whose desire but inability to serve I have much sympathy and understanding of for a different reason), Random Fate about who is to blame for the disaster (keep reading. It gets better at the end).



But Argghhh! takes the cake for best of a very good carnival by pounding in the real world logistics of what is going on. Speaking as someone who does that sort of thing for fun at a much lower level of detail (and my qualifications are less than his), there are whole areas he doesn't even touch on. Drinking water. Fuel for transport and cooking and heat. Just the evolving picture of where each small group of rescuers needs to go. Go too slow, and people die needlessly. Go too fast, and the whole thing unravels.



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Carnival of Personal Finance is up! Recommended: InsureBlog has a post about using an HSA to fund a Long Term Care Policy. I do not believe that Ohio (his state) has a Partnership for Long Term Care, but it's an even better idea in a partnership state (such as California or New York). If you have a partnership for Long Term Care available in your state (CA and NY I'm sure of, I believe NJ and IN are the other two, and that WA and IA have something as similar as they legally can get, coming to the party after the donkeys in the House of Representatives stopped any future plans), a partnership policy is likely to be more important than any tricks and twists for a fully paid up premium in 10 years.



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Carnival of Liberty is up. Recommended posts: Kira Zalan, Eidelblog