Links and Minifeatures 01 05 Thursday

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Dean's World has the best article on Ariel Sharon's sudden absence that I have seen.



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Asymmetrical Information has an excellent article upon people who think they understand economics, but don't.



I've always been amazed at the number of people who, because it deals with money, think they understand economics, investing, or real estate. They wouldn't try to practice law on an equivalent amount of learning, and they definitely wouldn't practice medicine, but in investing, economics, or real estate, they think because they've read a book written by a clueless journalist who has never worked in the field that they know just as much as working professionals. (I also regularly encounter a lot of people who think their understanding of military matters is superior to the average flag officer, when in fact they are so utterly clueless that words fail me. I have a fair idea of how many light-years short my expertise falls, and these self-proclaimed experts make me feel like Alexander III compared to Publius Quinctilius Varus.) Folks, there is a reason for the rigamarole of qualifications. Yes, a layman can be right in the face of an argument by a top professional. It's theoretically possible for every particle in your body to simultaneously jump one foot to the left, too. It's not a bet I'll take in the absence of further information.



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I largely agree with Captain's Quarters On the fallout from Abramoff. He may have rewarded more Elephants than Donkeys, and with larger amounts, but every Congresscritter who took the money would be tarred with the same brush, and any Donkey who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves. Furthermore, the Elephants are scrambling all over themselves to give the money back, while the Donkeys are pretending it's not their problem. Nobody is fooled. If you got bought for $50,000, you're a crooked political prostitute. If you got bought for $5,000, you're a cheap crooked political prostitute. If you gave the money back after finding out it was tainted, that's something in the way of redemption. If you kept it after finding out it was tainted, that's damnation. No serious proportion of the voting public buys into any kind of "crooked for Elephants only, okay for Donkeys only"



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Pigilito Says has a good artilce on EU's failure to deal with the natural gas crunch brought on by Russia's temporary cutoff of supplies. If you know the EU, what would you predict they do when Russai restored the gas: try and figure something out to prevent this from happening again, or just breathe a sigh of relief and send everybody home?



And these are the jokers we're trusting to negotiate with Iran over nuclear armaments?



(Upon which subject, I largely agree with evolution's post here. Iran gets nukes, they're going to get used. As in large explosions and radioactive fallout. Kim Jong Il isn't half as crazy as the mullahs, and that's not saying anything good about Kim Jong Il.)

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1 Comments

Richard Allen said:

one thought on your posting about experts and amatuers (ok, several thoughts)

1) what does that say about the blogosphere, and it's battles with the MSM? doesn't that still apply? I mean, the new york times is full of professionals, and you are just some real estate guy.

2) while I see the point, I think we need to approach it just like we do the blogosphere. ie: try to learn how reliable the source is. I am pretty good with this investment thingees, but my law and real estate is weak, and I fully admit this. most people don't admit when they don't know something. so you need to figure out who to listen to.

3) which brings me to the bias issue. yep, that major-general is much more versed in war than I am, but he also has biases, which is why many military support the war, but former general wesley clark does not. does that mean he was incompetent? stupid? a liar? or is everyone over here one?

4) in the end, I often trust enthusiastic amateurs (I am one myself, when it comes to stocks) than jaded "professionals" because those people care about what they do. some professionals do too, but I bet they started as enthusiastic amatuers :)

I am sure I had more, but forgot it, writing this up. cheers
Rick

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This page contains a single entry by Dan Melson published on January 5, 2006 9:28 PM.

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