Links and Minifeatures 2008 08 20 Wednesday

Poll shows McCain in 5-point lead over Obama

"There is no doubt the campaign to discredit Obama is paying off for McCain right now," pollster John Zogby said. "This is a significant ebb for Obama."

It is just one poll, but the problem for Obama is that every one of McCain's criticisms of him has been substantially true. The problem for Obama is that when you're a major party nominee (or presumptive nominee), everything that you've ever done or said is going to be dug up and scrutinized, and there's plenty of documentable trail on Obama to turn away the centrist voters, who hold the balance of power in any election. When it comes right down to it, the only asset Obama has over John McCain is his emotional appeal. It's hard to keep emotions like that in charge for months in the face of a barrage of facts.

I'm not getting comfortable though. The Democratic convention hasn't happened yet. Hillary could still be the nominee. Unlike the Republicans, whose delegates were all elected based upon a promise to support a given candidate, the Democratic "superdelegates" are allowed to change their mind, and it wouldn't take very many. These are party insiders, one of Hillary's core support groups. The Dems could be using Obama for a stalking horse, while Hillary gets a long respite from opposition scrutiny. It could have even been planned in individual meetings - and nobody except Hillary and each individual superdelegate knows who they are until and unless they do change their mind and vote for her at the convention. That's a conspiracy that can be kept - for a few months anyway, as only two people know about any given superdelegate, and only one for sure.

This boosts Hillary's chance to actually win, as for several months everybody's been focusing on Obama, and it still sets him up as the future face of the Democratic party, giving him automatic frontrunner status when her term is over. I think she's got the brains and confidence to engineer such a thing. I question a lot of things about Madame Hillary, but her intelligence is not among them, and I don't think anyone questions her confidence. The only question is, did she actually do it? We won't know for sure until the convention, and even there, the superdelegates changing their votes could be presented as the result of slipping polls, Obama's miscues, or any one of a number of other things.

On the other hand, if Obama wasn't her running mate in such a scenario, the Democrats might do what forty years of Republican outreach have failed to do: Get more minorities to vote Republican. The Democrats aren't competitive if they don't get 70% of the hispanic vote and 90% of the black vote. This also accomplishes something else: Having he vice-presidential nominee give the candidate a large boost due to their own high profile.

On the other hand, Hillary isn't nearly so bad as Obama as far as her actual positions. She'd appoint the same sort of judges (the Democratic base would require it), but her administration policies and priorities would be more centrist than Obama's. So even if this gets her elected instead of McCain, it's not the immediate disaster an Obama presidency would be. I'd rather have McCain, of course. But Hillary as Democratic nominee would have the effect of limiting the damage.

Russians dig in as pullback drags on in Georgia

Russian forces on Wednesday built a sentry post just 30 miles from the Georgian capital, appearing to dig in to positions deep inside Georgia despite pledges to pull back to areas mandated by a cease-fire signed by both countries.

When somebody tells me they'll do one thing and does something else, I've got a pretty good idea which of the two they really mean.

A top Russian general, meanwhile, said Russia plans to construct nearly a score of checkpoints to be manned by hundreds of soldiers in the so-called "security zone" around the border with South Ossetia.

and one report from someone claiming to be a Georgian corporal

23 Russian tanks, APCS and heavy guns showed up at the base on Tuesday and demanded to be let in. The Georgians refused and the Russians left after a 30-minute standoff but vowed to return after blowing up facilities in the village of Osiauri, he said.

More of the Face of war:

The Ethnic Toll in Georgia

Both Russia and Georgia have hurled charges of genocide and ethnic cleansing at each other in the aftermath of the five-day war in the Caucasus

experts work on housing for displaced Georgians

They are primarily sheltered in schools, hospitals and previously abandoned buildings. Most come from the Gori area, where the fighting has been the worst, and the Georgian government hopes they will be able to return home once Russian troops leave, Finance Minister Nika Gilauri said.

149 dead in plane crash at Madrid airport

Spanair Flight JK5022 - bound for the popular Canary Islands off the West African coast during the height of Europe's summer vacation season - sped off the end of the runway, crashed and broke into pieces, reports said.

In other words, pilot error or mechanical failure.