Real Estate: May 2006 Archives

(This is a somewhat redacted letter I've been sending out now for several months)



I have just recently attended a talk by Gregory Smith, the county assessor, on the future of home values in San Diego. He expects prices to continue to rise by 5-10% per year, citing scarcity as the reason. Basically, too few homes are being built, so we are in a situation with excess demand and not enough supply.



Now, public officials of the county of San Diego have an incentive to want prices to continue to rise. I tried to ask him a question about any other factors holding the price up, and he was unable to produce any.



Unfortunately for this point of view, high demand and scarce supply has a long history in the San Diego area. This has been a constant of the market, rather than a variable, since the late 1970s. Even during the last downturn, the problem was not a lack of interested buyers, the problem was that they couldn't afford the prices when interest rates went up. Sellers had a choice of selling at the prices people were able to qualify for or not at all. Many chose the latter option, it paid off in spades when interest rates fell and prices started rising again. Those in situations where waiting was not an option had no choice but to sell at lower prices.



The fact is that only 9% of the people can afford to purchase a home in San Diego. Even for wealthy investors who put $100,000 down on a $500,000 home with the intent of renting it out, their monthly cash requirements are $2528 to cover a 6.5% loan, plus approximately $500 per month to cover basic property taxes and then insurance, maintenance, etcetera on the property. Unless rents are well in excess of $3000 per month, which they are not, this amounts to investing $100,000 only to have to invest more every month in hopes that the market rise will eventually reimburse you. I agree with every respectable real estate investing guide that negative cash flow on an investment property is a recipe for disaster. This current situation in real estate has many parallels to the dot com investing bubble of several years ago.



Furthermore, we have many people who obtained short-term financing in the last several years, loans that must be refinanced within the next eighteen months, and will not be able to obtain terms that are as good or allow their adjustable rate loans to adjust. Either way, they are facing higher payments - payments that many are unlikely to be able to make. They will either sell voluntarily for what they can get, or involuntarily as the lender liquidates a nonperforming loan.



Even though long term rates are still remarkably affordable, short term financing, particularly on a "Stated Income" basis has become more prevalent for purchases, especially for beginning buyers, and these have risen enough to slow the market greatly. We are starting to see indications of a buyers market now. Homes are taking much longer to sell, and buyers are getting much more leverage on their offers. When longer term rates return to their historical margins above short, the effect will multiply. It doesn't take a genius - only a calculator - to know that when owner occupied rates go from 5.5% to 6.5%, somebody who could afford a $400,000 loan at 5.5% can only afford $359,000 at 6.5% (this difference is magnified for those willing to take interest only loans).



What does this mean to you, a homeowner? If you intend to hold onto your home for many years, I am confident that the market will eventually make good any short term correction. On the other hand, now is the time to secure the long term financing that enables you to hold onto the property profitably, while the high price of comparable properties helps your equity picture. (omitted text here)



If you are in a situation where you know that you are going to need to sell within the next few years, the time to act is definitely now, lest you lose more of your precious built-up equity to the short-term vagaries of the market. This market is going to get much worse for sellers before it gets better. (omitted text here)



And if you're looking to move to a larger house soon, the time to act is now to leverage the market! Sell while the market is still high, knowing that when prices recede later, the money you get from the sale will help you buy more house for less! (omitted text here)

Caveat Emptor

UPDATE: Today's mail had an invitation to a fundraising event for Mr. Smith's re-election, sent out by the realtors association. Nothing new, but it illustrates the fact that he's in the good graces of the realtors association. This doesn't happen by accident

originally here

This is a question that gets asked a lot.



Escrow is nothing more or less than a neutral third party that stands in the middle of a real estate transaction and makes certain all of the i's are dotted and t's are crossed. They make certain that all of the terms of the contract have been met, and then they make certain that everyone who is a party to the transaction gets what is coming to them via the contract.



Many times folks complain about the escrow company or escrow officer, when it's not their fault and the problem lies elsewhere. The escrow company is obligated to make certain all of the terms of the contract have been followed, not just most of them. I've talked before about how if the contract is not accepted exactly as proposed in the most recent modification, you don't have a deal. There cannot be any points of disagreement, or you don't have a purchase contract. Similarly for escrow. Usually problems that the client sees are not the escrow officer's doing, but rather someone else's. Quite often, the person complaining is the person who caused the problem. The escrow officer can't do anything without mutual agreement. If the loan officer doesn't get the loan in a timely fashion, it's not the escrow officer's fault. If the agent doesn't meet the inspector or appraiser so they can get their work done in a timely fashion, it's not the escrow officer's fault. If you can't qualify for the loan, if you have to come up with more money, if you don't get as much money as you thought, it's not the escrow officer's fault. But in many cases, the escrow officer makes a convenient whipping boy for the sins of others.



This is not to say that it's never the escrow officer's fault that something goes wrong, but if one party or the other is not in compliance with the terms of the agreement, the only thing the escrow officer can do is get an amended agreement or get them into compliance. Nonetheless, I have seen many transactions fall apart because the escrow officer was a bozo. The really good escrow officers are like chess masters - several moves ahead of the whole game, and when I find one, I want to use them all of the time. Unfortunately for buyer's agents, the seller is the one with real control over where the escrow transaction goes, and when the seller's agent decides they want to use some bozo, that's probably where it's going. I can do all kinds of things that should move them, but the bottom line is they want to use their broker's pet escrow (who is more likely to be staffed by bozos than any other escrow company, as they've got captive clients), I as the buyer's agent cannot force them to go elsewhere.



As the escrow process moves forward, the escrow officer collects documentation that the various requirements of the contract have been fulfilled. When they have all been fulfilled, the transaction is ready to close and record.



The loan is usually the last thing left hanging after everything else is done. There are a variety of reasons for this, most obvious of which is that the loan's conditions are likely to include everything else being done before the loan funds. Appraisal, grant deed, inspection, etcetera and ad nauseum. When the borrower meets underwriter's guidelines, they go and sign loan documents. Signing loan documents does not mean the loan will fund, and it is a major misapprehension to believe so. It is legitimate to move conditions from prior to docs to prior to funding if doing so serves some interest of the client, such as funding the loan before the rate lock expires. If they go to documents before the client's income and occupational status have been verified, that's an unethical lender looking to lock the client into their loan or none at all. Always demand a copy of outstanding conditions to fund the loan before you sign loan documents.



Once the loan documents are signed is when the real fun begins, because that's when the underwriter takes a step back and the funder steps to the forefront. The loan funder is an employee of the lender who fulfills much the same function as the escrow officer - make sure all of the conditions have been met before they release the money. The loan funder has responsibility only to the lender, though, not the borrower, not the seller, not anyone else. It's their job to ask such questions as when the homeowner's insurance got paid (and where is the proof?), has the final Verification of employment been done (assuming they aren't required to do it themselves), or work out a procedure whereby they get proof that all of this stuff is satisfied before the funds get released. If the loan officer has done their job correctly, the funder is working primarily with the escrow company. If I have to talk to the funder as a loan officer, that's usually a sign I should have worked a little harder earlier on, because my part should be done before the funder gets involved.



Once all of the conditions to fund the loan and close the transaction have been met, the escrow officer records the transaction. In point of fact, it's the title company who usually is set up to record the documents, something they will charge for. Until the transaction is recorded, the lender can pull the funds back. It's not the escrow officer's fault (in most cases) if they do this. It's because something about the borrower's situation changed, and now the lender is unhappy. Only rarely is it caused by a bozo of an escrow officer who doesn't understand what's going on, and tells the funder something that causes the lender to get nervous. Remember, they are loaning a lot of money, and the list of reasons why lenders justifiably get nervous is fairly long, especially as a certain percentage of all mortgage applications are fraudulent.



Once the loan is funded and the transaction recorded, the escrow officer has some final stuff to do. Send out the checks to everyone who's getting one, complete with an accounting of the money. Make certain all charges relating to the transaction are paid, for which they will usually keep a small "pad" for last minute expenses, so that the buyer and seller are likely to see a check a few days later after the escrow officer has made certain everything is paid to the penny. And so ends the transaction, and this article.



Caveat Emptor.

UPDATED here