Real Estate: June 2007 Archives
Every so often I get e-mail asking why real estate transactions are so complex. The answer is, "Because they're for a lot of money, and because there's a lot of money involved, con artists and other people will make a lot of money if they successfully con you out of small proportions of it. Therefore, real estate acts as a magnet for the less than scrupulous."
Nor is outright fraud the only issue. If Sellers can persuade potential buyers that their property is 2% more valuable, that's $10,000 on a half million dollar property. If buyers can persuade sellers to sell that half million dollar property for 2% less, that's the same $10,000. Offer ordinary Americans - wealthy by the standards of the vast majority of the world - a chance to make $10,000, and they'll do anything from eating live worms to months of primitive living and Macchiavellian scheming to be the last one voted off the island.
Greed is a very powerful motivator. Because of that, there are any number of scams and games out there. If you've been in either real estate or mortgage very long, chances are that you've had more than one tried on you or your clients. Perhaps one has even succeeded. Sometimes people get taken and don't realize it for years, if ever. Not too far from me, a couple months ago somebody got nearly $600,000 for a property that was really worth $480,000 to $490,000. The buyers are happy, too, according to the listing agent, never mind the fact that they paid $100,000 too much for the property. They'll eventually realize that their property isn't worth that much more than the neighbors', but they'll probably never make the connection back to "We paid too much". Unless the condition was completely misrepresented or something about what the seller says just isn't true, there's a good possibility of getting away with it. Even the sharp buyer's agents who spot the issue just want to keep their clients out of trouble. There's no advantage to me or my clients in publicizing other people's lies. Even on the listing side, the agent either thinks an offer is good or they don't, and the seller ends up accepting or sending the prospective buyer on their way. There's no advantage in warning others about one particular person trying to pull one particular scam.
With the amount of money to be made quickly, a lot of transactions have something fishy about them. I've seen figures and estimates varying all the way from two percent to nearly fifty percent of all real estate and mortgage transactions, depending upon where they set the threshold.
Against this backdrop, security measures have been instituted. Appraisal, inspection, disclosures, title insurance, escrow, notaries, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. Every single one of them has reasons why they are advantageous and why they are required. Every time you do without one of the security measures that the industry has implemented which is applicable to your situation, you leave yourself open for things which vary from minor games to completely illegal. Yes, they cost money - a lot of money in the aggregate. However, when the alternative is leaving the door open to transactions that are one hundred percent fraud, they have gotten incredibly cheap. Every time you try to cut out the professional who is supposed to protect you or work on your behalf, you leave the door open for losing more than they might possibly cost.
Take out the security measures, and not only do you open the door wider, but the people who are mildly concerned that they might end up imprisoned now will have no real downside to the activity. If there's no real chance of being caught and punished, what rational incentive is there not to do it? Do it, and make an extra $50,000. Don't do it, and the only difference is that you won't make that extra $50k. What's the incentive not to? There just aren't a lot of saints out there. Look at the way people behave in traffic, for a lot less gain, and pretty much every day I see someone getting a ticket that's going to cost them more than getting away with the offense 100 times would save. For this reason, all sorts of folks hope that you can somehow be persuaded not to take advantage of all available protective measures. It means they stand a better chance of getting away with whatever they're trying to pull.
In fact, the level of complexity and detail assists in finding and convicting malefactors. The more information you have, the better you can pin down exactly who did what. By breaking up the charges and the payments to track exactly what went where and for what purpose, a paper trail is created detailing what happened. If the only record made is that A paid B $X for some land somewhere, that says nothing about whether B owned it in the first place, what B told A in order to sell it, what A thought the condition was, or even what exact land was sold. I can go on for quite a while, but the point is that every little finger in the pie should have a good reason why it's there. If you're not trying to pull anything, they're there to protect you. Even if you are trying to pull something, they're there to protect you from the other side of the transaction cheating better than you. Especially if you're honest in the first place, it's a better situation for everyone. Like employment and tort law, real estate law and practice has evolved the way it has as a protection against unscrupulous practices, and short-circuiting any part of it increases the odds that you will find yourself very unhappy indeed.
Caveat Emptor
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Precis: Still an excellent good time to buy and a poor time to sell. Matter of fact, don't put the property on the market if you've got a reasonable alternative. If you're looking to buy, though, you're not likely to find a better time soon.
The hard fact is that there's a lot of inventory, and most owners have priced their property over the market. There's an awful lot of agents out there that "buy" listings by telling owners they can get more than the property is worth. There are comparatively few buyers out there, and there are 32.6 sellers for every one of them. I hope those readers who aren't hetero bear with us, but imagine you're at a dance where one sex outnumbers the other thirty to one. Those few members of the outnumbered sex can be incredibly picky, while the multitudes of the outnumbering sex are going to have to do a lot to compete with their thirty plus rivals.
Real estate isn't a dance of course. For one thing, in the real world boys can dance with boys and girls can dance with girls, at least if they're so inclined. But in real estate, two sellers can't really dance - it doesn't do them any good. In the real world, you have the ability to leave this dance and go find another one. In real estate, you can't do that. The property is where it is. You can leave the dance and go home, but there's only one dance to go to.
For sellers, you can either do what is necessary to out-compete the other sellers for the buyer's attention, or you can decide it's not that important to sell. If you take the latter option, get your property off the market. If you want to sell, look at what properties like yours are actually selling for. For most, it's thousands to tens of thousands less than asking price. Properties that are correctly priced are selling, while properties that are overpriced aren't. If you need to sell, it doesn't do any good to price it too high. If you don't need to sell, and I mean need to sell, then why is your property on the market? If you do need to sell, you might as well list it for what it's going to sell for and get it done, because until you're ready to accept an appropriate offer, it's going to sit unsold, which costs you money. You can have $X now, or you can have $X three months from now, after you've spent another $10,000 on taxes and mortgage. Your choice. $X plus thirty thousand is not on the list of options.
For buyers, the pickings are still very rich, if not quite as good as they were earlier in the year. Where earlier in the year you could take all the time you wanted to think it over, no matter how good the bargain was, I've had three properties go "Pending" on interested buyers in the last month. People are out there, looking for bargains. Properties that are priced appropriately are selling.
One thing that distresses me is what a large proportion of Vampire properties are out there, and what some of them are selling for. There was a Vampire some clients of mind got interested in because it had a large lot, four bedrooms and a pool. However, it also had foundation, structure, and settling issues. I talked my clients out of it, but somebody else paid essentially full price despite the fact that the foundation is cracked through and the structure is settling unevenly. Spotting Vampires is one of the areas where a good buyer's agent earns every penny they make - in this instance, my clients aren't going to have to find thirty or forty thousand to fix the foundation and another twenty plus for the structure. It seems like the proportion of Vampire is increasing, also. People are trying to unload their problem properties rather than fixing them correctly - and other people are buying them. It's one thing if it's disclosed and everybody is negotiating on the same page. It's something else again if the sellers are trying to pretend those problems don't exist, or even worse, trying to hide them. If you try and hide it, I guarantee it will come back to haunt you - it's not like those buyers are going to say, "Oh, well, we're just out fifty thousand dollars!" Not that winning the lawsuit is going to be any comfort to those buyers in the meantime, but the sellers can pretty much count on having to make it good.
I've saved the most important recent development for last. Rates on loans, particularly thirty year fixed rate loans, are up. A month ago, I could get 5.875% on a thirty year fixed for one point retail. The equivalent rate today is 6.50 percent. So if someone qualified for a payment of $2500 then, they could afford a loan for $422,500, while at today's rates the equivalent loan is only $395,500 - more than a six percent drop. Now I'm neglecting other factors in the equation, but the point is this: Unless rates go back down, they're exerting downwards pressure on prices. With the trade deficit, budget deficit, and microscopic US Savings rate, I don't expect rates to fall, nor does the federal reserve. In the longer term, prices will continue to rise, but in the short term, together with the huge glut of inventory on the market and the high ratio of sellers to buyers, we may see further price drops until this inventory clears. If you don't need to sell right now, no biggie. But if you do, it's even more reason to price the property correctly and get it sold now, because the odds are that the prices will be at least a little lower in the next few months.
Some people are going to read that and think, "We'll wait to buy until prices have bottomed out!" This is an excellent way to miss the buying opportunity we have now. How will you know that prices have bottomed out? The answer is, "When prices start rising again," but if you wait until then, there's a reason why prices will be rising again. The excess inventory will have cleared, there will be a lower ratio of sellers to buyers, and in general, things will be much better for sellers than they are now, while not being as good for buyers. There is also a tremendous pent up demand out there, people who want to buy houses but figure they'll be better waiting. When those folks finally decide to come off the sidelines, as they will when government starts reporting housing prices increasing again, watch out for another year like 2003 where prices go crazy because everybody wants to buy and nobody wants to sell. But in order to cash in on it, you have to have bought previously.
Caveat Emptor
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