Zee Links and Minifeatures: January 2007 Archives

NATO, U.S. neglect "psychological warfare": report

"Insurgents and jihadists have proved adept at conducting successful information campaigns that reach a global audience and foment violence elsewhere," the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said.



"But Western militaries have shown insufficient capability in their own attempts to carry out information and psychological operations, its annual report, "The Military Balance," said.

Ya think?



Of course, it doesn't help that most of our mass media are actively rooting for the US to lose.



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I won't hide that I am have never been a big fan of Hillary. But it just became even less likely that I will vote for her next year: Hillary Clinton and the Politics of Resenting History



I haven't heard George Bush say one word about having to clean up the mess Mr. Clinton left. If Hillary seriously thinks it's beneath her dignity, or just not part of the job description if she happens to the the next president, to be continuing the job that she has aided in boosting the size and complexity of, she shouldn't run.



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Michael Barone on the political situation in the Middle East - and how the Bush Administration policies have improved it.



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Captain's Quarters on the Executive Order requiring oversight of agency rule making.

A while ago I did an article entitled Debt Consolidation Refinance - Pros and Cons. It's a good article, if I do say so myself. Nonetheless, I think there's more to say on the subject, not just from a point of view of cranking some numbers, but on a meta level as well.



The most concrete lure of debt consolidation refinance is cash flow. Specifically, lower payments. The trap is that you are spreading principal payments over a much longer time. You refinance your home to pay off your car loan. Instead of paying the car off over three or five years, now you're paying it off over thirty. Instead of having it paid off when you go to buy another car, you still owe most of what you borrowed, and unless you saved the cash in the meantime, now you're layering more debt on top of what you already owe. So instead of having a paid off $25,000 automobile that's still worth $10,000 and no debt, you now have the forgoing plus $20,000 of debt that you still owe, and you are still paying interest on, on a car that you aren't going to get any more use out of. The fact that the security is your home rather than the vehicle changes nothing except the exact terms of the loan. You added $25,000 to your balance and $20,000 of it is still there, you're still making payments on it, and you are still paying interest on it.



Low payment is one of the best ways to sucker people into doing stupid things that I know of. Maybe that explains why I'm not rich; I want to figure out whether I'm actually helping the situation, and by the time I've worked it through, the folks are off calling the guy who's selling them the Option ARM who doesn't mention downsides or what is really important. As far as I can tell, low payment is the entire advantage of renting, for crying out loud. People think in terms of cash flow while flushing their financial future down the toilet in the name of lower payments.



There is a reason why that Statement of Cash Flow is the least important of the financial statements corporations are required to file, and Wall Street only discusses cash flow when there's something wrong. Unless they've got a large proportion of clients that don't pay their bills, the Income Statement is a lot more important. Corporations don't think of their facilities only in terms of the payments on their loans. Neither should you.



When you pay off a loan, of whatever nature, you are essentially transferring money from one pocket to another. Furthermore, once you have paid it off, you are no longer paying interest - the real cost of the money - on the balance. It's only the interest charge that you are really paying and that is costing you money. Paying off principal is paying yourself. Stretching the loan term from three years to thirty does not alter the amount of principal you pay, but it does greatly increase the amount of interest you pay. Even if you cut the interest rate from 10% to 6% and get a tax deduction to boot. Paying attention to payments is for suckers. You have to be able to make your payment, as I've said before, but so long as the payment is one you can make, concentrate on the real cost of the money - interest rate - and the cost of the loan, or how much you have to spend in order to get the loan funded. Weigh this against the benefits and how long those benefits last.



If all you are paying attention to is cash flow, and you consolidate your debt because it lowers your payment so that you can spend more money, don't be surprised if you find yourself in the same situation a little while down the line. This is a real world illustration of the law of diminishing returns. Each time you do it, you dig yourself in deeper, and there is less additional spending needed to get you to the point where you have to consolidate again. You consolidate your $1500 house payment and $40,000 in debt, and your new payment is $1800. Then you consolidate that and $30,000 in debt, and your new payment is $2100. Then you consolidate that and $20,000, and your new payment is $2400. What do you do when you can't consolidate any more, and you can't afford the payments, either?



If, on the other hand, you consolidate because it lowers your cost of interest and gets you a tax break and you still keep making the same payments as before, then you're miles ahead. If you're using debt consolidation to lower your payment, you are doing it wrong. If your choices are bankruptcy or debt consolidation, well, if you've got a nice stable home loan that you're not going to need to refinance for a couple of years, I might actually consider bankruptcy, particularly if I only need to shed one or two lines of credit. Obviously, talk to bankruptcy attorney first, but once you've rolled it into your home loan, those higher costs are a part of your life for as long as you own the property and haven't paid the loan off. If you can't afford them and you're a serial consolidator, eventually you're going to get to point where you lose the property.



If you consolidate in order to cut your interest costs, and you don't roll excessive loan fees in to your balance, and you keep making the same payment as before and don't take on any more debt until the balance on your home loan is at least as low as it was before you consolidated, then you come out ahead. Way ahead. You're a little bit ahead due to the lowered costs of interest, and you're a little bit further ahead due to the tax break from interest on home loans, and after you get to the point where you were before, every payment you make without adding new debt pays off much more of your balance. In my original Debt Consolidation Refinance article, I used the example of rolling $75,000 debt into a preexisting $300,000 mortgage. It raised the minimum payment by about $400 and cut the overall minimum payment by $1100. If that minimum payment is the reason you did it, you just hosed yourself. But if you cut your overall cost of interest, and kept making the same payments, you've accelerated your payoff schedule. Make the same payments as before, and you're even in less time than it would have taken to pay the consumer credit down. Keep making those same payments after you've brought yourself even, and it can pay the entire debt load off in half the time or less that your home loan would have taken. Even if you don't make it all the way to zero before you need another car, debt consolidation can set you years ahead in just a few short months - but only after you've paid your balance down to where it was before.



In short, debt consolidation refinance is not some magic wand to get out of debt free. There are pitfalls into which the overwhelming majority of people fall, because they do it for the wrong reasons, and afterwards, they keep doing it again and again until some disaster happens and they lose the property. However, correctly handled, it can significantly enhance your financial situation.



Caveat Emptor

UPDATED here

Carnival of Personal Finance



Carnival of Real Estate



Carnival of Investing Recommended: My Money Blog (Why You Should Ignore Stock Market Predictions), Genius Types (Keep Your Cool, in stocks and dating)



Carnival of Debt Reduction



Carnival of the Capitalists

Another story of one determined person making a real difference. Flat tire? Looks like a job for Nigeria's 'Lady Mechanics'

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The Republicans could do worse: Hunter Touts Experience, Conservatism in Bid for Presidency



He's local to me, and although I don't live in his district, he's always impressed me as a rational conservative, and his Armed Services Committee experience is a very strong calling card, given the international situation we find ourselves in. He's another Republican I could really support, along with Giuliani, Gingrich, and even McCain, if he stops trying to repeal the first amendment. Unlike Giuliani and McCain, Hunter doesn't have problems with the Republican primary voters, and he might be able to sell a large majority of centrists outside the party if he gets the nomination. Unlike Gingrich, he's still in government, which is a very powerful advantage to visibility. I'd like to see him get some traction, at least.



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Q and O on the progressive disintegration of the secular Turkish state.



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neo-neocon and Peter Mulhern on the threat we face.



neo's ending Churchill Quote bears repeating:

If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.

I am well aware that with my politics, I alienate a considerable number who might pay attention to my area of primary expertise, and people who might do otherwise business with me who are turned off by my disagreement with their politics. I am nonetheless a citizen with children - two daughters to be precise. If I can not provide for them a world that is at least as good as the world my wife and I got from our parents, then I have failed, as a citizen and as a father, far more important than any economic failure I might possibly experience.



The Universe knows I have agreed to any number of debates when the opposing side wanted merely a diatribe. They talk, I listen, they get their way. One twit sent me an hour and a half of media; I did her the service of refuting the first, she sent me another propaganda piece that tried to make exactly the same points without responding to my refutation of the first. That's not how it works. In order to have a debate, both sides have to respond both intellectually and honestly, acknowledge the points made by the other side, and get on with the hard intellectual work of overcoming them, or acknowledge that perhaps you were mistaken. It is not enough to send copies of the propaganda to which your side subscribes to proponents of the other. That's not debate, that's shouting down. You must prove that you can stand up to and intellectually refute the best argument that the other side can make. The true test of debate is not tearing down the other side, it is in showing that even though they may have some things in their favor, you've got something better.



We've got the Enlightenment and the US Constitution and Bill of Rights and the scientific method and the study of logic and the experiences that brought our Western Civilization to the highest point that has yet been attained upon this planet, that wants to continue climbing while expanding out its privileges to the rest of the world. It isn't us, at least not as individuals; we're standing upon the shoulders of giants so immense and so powerful that those who would bring us down have only the hope that we will stand idly by why they tear us down to comfort them. Sadly, they have almost seduced us as a society into doing so.



I need to spend some more time thinking about this subject in order to articulate my thoughts sufficiently, but I;ll try to follow up within the week.



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A devastating critique of Arnold's health care proposal.



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My opinion is that The Pledge is entirely one sided, and yet, it is better than nothing at all. Of course, when was the last time anyone withheld a donation from a Democrat for failing to support the war effort? Nonetheless, the effort would be worthwhile.



I signed. So should you if you want victory, even if you're a die hard Democratic partisan.



Assuming you don't want to live in an Islamic theocracy in your old age. Also assuming you're not one of the ones they kill right off.



There is no acceptable substitute for Victory.



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Top Ten Myths of the Iraq War (via Instapundit)

Carnival of Investing

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U.S. troops may protect selves from Iranians



I wasn't aware that there was any doubt. If there was, shame on the entire chain of command, but particularly Mr. Bush.

He spoke after The Washington Post reported that U.S. forces have the authority to capture or kill Iranian agents active in attacking American soldiers inside Iraq, a story Bush and other U.S. officials did not deny.



"It makes sense that if somebody is trying to harm our troops or stop us from achieving our goals or killing innocent citizens in Iraq, that we will stop them," Bush said. "It's an obligation we all have to protect our folks and achieve our goals."

All well and good, but

U.S. troops would not go into Iran.

I understand the political situation that leads to this, but don't be surprised if the opposition uses this rule against our troops. If Iran doesn't want incursions, and they shouldn't unless they are co-operating with the rebels - which they unfortunately are - they should have troops on the border ready to contest entry.



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People Unclear On The Concept Department: ElBaradei calls for timeout on Iran nuclear program

International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohammed ElBaradei said Friday he was calling for a timeout regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, hoping that talks on the matter can resume.



ElBaradei told CNN International that the timeout would mean Iran would freeze its nuclear program, while the United Nations would temporarily suspend the sanctions package against Iran that took effect last month.

Dear Mr. Clueless IAEA Honcho:



Time is precisely what Iran wants. They may even say that they will freeze their program, but whether they actually do so is another matter entirely. See both their president and religious ruler's stated goals. Such a "Time Out" has a very high probability of giving Iran exactly what it really wants: the time and opportunity to develop nuclear weapons at a much lower economic cost.



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Sanctions for hiring illegals worry firms

Under the provision, offered by Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., companies caught hiring illegal workers while on a federal contract would be banned from government work for 10 years. Other companies discovered with illegal workers would be prohibited from getting federal contracts for seven years.



The ban would not be subject to appeal in court, but the federal government could waive it for national security reasons. Companies that use a pilot electronic employment verification system would be exempt from the sanctions. Business groups complain the verification system is flawed.

Hurray!



Let's get real here. If businesses were really worried about sanctions being unjustly applied, they have an easily available safe harbor. All they have to do is use the verification system and they are in the clear. But if what they really want is to be able to hire illegal aliens without sanctions, which is the present system, then they would be doing, well, precisely what they are doing. Complaining and trying to get the proposed law changed.



Just as I have no patience for people in authority not enforcing the laws on the books, neither do I have any for corporations who actively work to frustrate the will of the electorate so that they can take advantage of people who have no avenue of complaint, and they want to keep making money from the very government they are defying.



In short, business as usual. (deleted expletive)



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Flight delays hint at troubled system



I think there should be a bid system for the right to depart and land at impacted airports when traffic levels exceed certain targets. Yes, it will raise the price of tickets. But I've seen afternoon air traffic in the LA Basin too many times, and it's worse now than it was twenty years ago. AOPA opposes it because it'll mean that the pilot of a four seat single engine aircraft would have to bid against 747s for the right to land at LAX at 5 PM Friday, while I think that pilot should probably just plan to use any of the dozen or so airports in the area that are functionally equivalent for general aviation, or arrive and depart when the airport isn't quite so busy. If you want an idea what it's like, imagine that you were driving a Mini at freeway speed down a one lane road on which there is a continuous traffic of tractor rigs doing over twice your speed, and they don't even have to actually hit you to wipe you out due to wake turbulence. That's general aviation on final for LAX when it's busy.

Michael Barone on the State of the Union Address



Michelle Malkin's take



I am amazed at the refusal of the "get out now!" crowd to consider the question of what happens next if they get their way.

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Speaking of Iraq:



Lefty Business Insults Troops

SGT Hess,

We do not ship to APO addresses, and even if we did, we would NEVER ship to Iraq. If you were sensible, you and your troops would pull out of Iraq.



Bargain Suppliers

Discount-Mats.com

Q. How much extra effort does it take to ship to an APO?

A. Basically zero.



Dear Bargain Suppliers,

Dear Discount-Mats.com,



Go bankrupt.



Sincerely,

Dan Melson



Evidently, the sergeant has all the help he can handle with the problem. Good.



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"I represent a majority black district. Maybe I should join the Congressional Black Caucus to find out how to better serve my constituents."



Never mind.



Racist scum, and I'm not talking about Representative Cohen.



More perspective here.



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These two reporters theoretically saw the same testimony: JOHN HOLUSHA and Ann Scott Tyson.



official DOD site version here. Can't find a transcript yet. I know which version seems more likely to me.



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Nothing regular readers should be unaware of, but it bears repeating: The Vietnam history you haven't heard



In other words, the story that the leftist consciousness is pushing around the world is so full of lies, omissions, and inaccuracies that it bears essentially no relationship to what actually happened. The communists successfully manipulated the public's perceptions of the entire thing, and the media still won't admit that in their zealousness to be independent of the American power structure, they became the tools of an enemy one. Willingly, in some cases. Blindly, in others.

Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it. George Santayana

RINO Sightings Eric did a wonderful job via Salvador Dali (Not Quite Safe For Work, if your boss doesn't understand that it's Art) Recommended: Digger's Realm (illegal immigrant sex offenses, but I seem to recall that includes some truly insignificant crimes as well, such as public urination), Web Economy BS Generator

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Ship from 8th Century Found in Mediterranean



I didn't know where Dor Beach was; search engine results led me to believe it's Israel. The period in question would correspond to the Byzantine navy dominating that area. On the other hand, I also found a "Cala d'Or" in Majorca, which, given the political situation in the Western Mediterranean, could also be it. I find it difficult to accept that they've only found one wreck from that period in the eastern Med, but would find it much more credible pertaining to the Western portion, where my best understanding has maritime traffic much lower at that point in time, both due to the Vikings and the general state of the world. On the other hand, 'twas the Israelis at Haifa studying it. Fascinating article, though.



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If his lawyers wanted a strategy guaranteed to backfire and harm their client, and keep on doing so even if he does get acquitted despite those lawyer's best efforts, it would be hard to beat this: Lawyers Paint Libby As Sacrificial Lamb

Top White House officials tried to blame vice presidential aide "Scooter" Libby for the 2003 leak of a CIA operative's identity to protect President Bush's political strategist, Karl Rove, Libby's defense attorney said Tuesday as his perjury trial began.

Say what? He's on trial for perjury for lying to investigators under oath, as even the article mentions:

Rove was one of two sources for Novak's story. The other was then-Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. Nobody, including Rove and Armitage, has been charged with the leak. Libby is accused of lying to investigators and obstructing the probe into the leak.

Now if Richard Armitage was charged, I might believe they were protecting Rove. But the power structure in Washington won't stand for charging Richard Armitage, who is a powerful insider with ties to both sides of the aisle, and FitzGerald

didn't charge him, despite him being the only one possibly guilty of a primary offense.

Fitzgerald said Libby learned from five people - from Cheney to members of the CIA and State Department - that Wilson's wife worked for the CIA. Libby discussed that fact to reporters and others in the White House, Fitzgerald said.



"But when the FBI and grand jury asked about what the defendant did," Fitzgerald said, "he made up a story."

Whoops. What does the "I was set up" thing have to do with this, unless he was instructed to lie by his superiors? Even if he was instructed to lie, and Vice President Cheney bears this out in his testimony, Libby is still guilty. Nor will he be in a position to ask for or receive clemency after this trial tactic. Furthermore, he'll never get another job offer, ever again, either in Washington (either party) or the corporate world. All that's left is a book deal. Meantime, he's a convicted felon. He could have pulled the Bill Clinton defense and likely gotten away with it, or he could have just fought it straightforward, on the evidence, and had an excellent chance of clemency, even on the chance he was convicted.



I am not a lawyer. But If I were "Scooter" Libby, I'd be looking for another one.



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I wasn't there, but as the father of two young children, I've got to say it looks like the airline got it right. Toddler's Temper Ousts Family From Plane

"The flight was already delayed 15 minutes and in fairness to the other 112 passengers on the plane, the crew made an operational decision to remove the family," AirTran spokeswoman Judy Graham-Weaver said.

and

She was removed because "she was climbing under the seat and hitting the parents and wouldn't get in her seat" during boarding, Graham-Weaver said.

In other words, the parents couldn't or wouldn't control her. The rules and regs are hardwired and the airline doesn't have a choice about whether it's going to comply.



The mother's excuse?

Julie and Gerry Kulesza, who were headed home to Boston on Jan. 14 from Fort Myers, said they just needed a little more time to calm their daughter, Elly.



"We weren't given an opportunity to hold her, console her or anything," Julie Kulesza said in a telephone interview Tuesday.

They had at least fifteen minutes, in addition to whatever time before boarding they should have needed. Nor would it have hurt her to be belted in to her seat. Yes, she would have cried. Sometimes you have to let them. I'm sorry for the surrounding passengers, but that's the least bad alternative if the child is going on that flight. But the parents weren't willing to do that. What is the airline supposed to do? Delay the flight and everyone else on it for as long as it takes, be liable for costs incurred by those people and the resulting bad will, delay the folks waiting for the plane's next flight, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera?



If I thought I had to, I'd drive across the country and back to prevent this sort of thing with my girls. Or whatever else needed to happen. But when you engage in communal transportation, you are making the statement that you believe that you can comply with the rules set down for it, and if you can't, you have no gripe coming when the carrier deals with the situation appropriately. It was not even vaguely reasonable to expect a planeload of other folks to wait however long it took, as well as forcing the airline to eat major delays and possibly be on the hook for payments to everyone else. At the very least, I'd voluntarily take the next flight to give me a chance to get her calmed down. Blaming the airline is avoiding the issue, which is that it was the parent's fault for not prepping the child, plus not being willing to deal with the necessities of the situation.

The Orlando-based carrier reimbursed the family $595.80, the cost of the three tickets, and the Kuleszas flew home the next day.



They also were offered three roundtrip tickets anywhere the airline flies, Graham-Weaver said.

Far beyond the call of duty, in my book, in addition to delaying the entire flight fifteen minutes to give them the opportunity to do what they should have done in the first place. The airline bent over backwards, at the expense of their other passengers, and the parents spat in their outstretched hands.



Yes, I complain about bad customer service when it really is bad customer service. But this isn't a customer service issue, except from the point of view of the other passengers, who also paid for their tickets on the flight, and the passengers who were waiting for that plane's next flight, etcetera. This is just plain rudeness on the part of the parents, who should have had some understanding of the situation they were putting the airline and the other passengers into. I went into my regular barbershop the other day, and people were stacked up so that I would have missed a meeting if I took my turn. It would not have been reasonable to expect to be accommodated ahead of others already waiting; instead I told the owner it was not his fault and that I'd be back in a few days when I had another chance. Any other response would have shifted the responsibility for the situation from where it belonged: on my shoulders. Nor is this any special virtue; it's just an acknowledgement of the fact that the conditions weren't right for what I hoped for: a quick haircut in time for my meeting.



I would like to ask these folks one question: Are there any other people on the planet they come from, or just two-legged anthropoid puppets that move around and get in their way?



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I'd drop the last two letters: Clinton says spouse will be an 'asset'

If elected president, Hillary Rodham Clinton says her spouse and former Oval Office occupant will be a "tremendous asset," but she's the decider.

Why is it so bad when Bush is the decider, but worthy of writing in glowing terms when the candidate is one the writer approves of?



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Excellent article: Retirees up against debt

Seniors in and approaching retirement -- such as the oldest baby boomers -- are carrying "debt loads that their parents would not have considered," says Sally Hurme of AARP, the advocacy group for people 50 and older. "This does not bode well for financial health."

The one and only measure of wealth that makes sense is "How long can you live without any income from outside sources?"



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The Speech George Bush Should Make Tonight



(via Tinkerty Tonk)



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INDC Journal is in Iraq, and contributing such reports as this one (concerning corruption and rooting it out).

Carnival of Personal Finance Recommended: 1st million at 33 (thinking about money other than college in a 529), Ask Uncle Bill (how to get through college debt free - but speaking from experience, it is work!)



Carnival of the Capitalists

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This must be some new definition of the word free with which I was previously unacquainted: Venezuela's Chavez tells Washington "go to hell"

A State Department spokesman on Friday described Chavez's proposal to allow presidents to rule by decree as "a bit odd" in a democracy.



"That is a sacrosanct legal authority of Venezuela. Go to hell, gringos! Go home! Go home!" Chavez said during his weekly Sunday broadcast. "We're free here, and every day we'll be more free."

Free to follow Chavez' decrees, no doubt, and if they don't desire to do so, free to be beaten, imprisoned, or shot.

Chavez also plans to alter the nation's constitution, rewritten in 1999 following a campaign Chavez himself led, to boost state control over the economy and remove a two-term limit for presidents.

Free to do whatever Chavez wants this week, free to do his bidding as long as he lives and the bidding of his chosen successor after that...



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Murder of outspoken journalist tests Turkey's democratic gains



Turkey's Islamists have been fighting a battle against the secular constitution since it was enacted in the 1920s. Furthermore, Kemal Ataturk was a remarkable man, but he was also a proud Turk, and those secularists fighting both the Moslem hard-liners and Turkish pride are having a rough go of it:

The journalist, Hrant Dink, was a vocal critic of Turkey's treatment of its religious minorities and had been particularly outspoken against the government's policy of rejecting claims that the mass killings of Armenians by the Ottoman Turks in 1915 was genocide. He was shot in broad daylight just outside the offices of the bilingual Turkish-Armenian newspaper Agos, where he served as editor.



"A bullet has been fired at democracy and freedom of expression. I condemn the traitorous hands behind this disgraceful murder," Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said on television soon after Mr. Dink was murdered. "This was an attack on our peace and stability."

So at least the Prime Minister said the correct words after the incident, and it sounds like he intends to follow through. Turkey is the Islamic country which has most confronted the issue of separation of church and state, and also one of the countries in the region where minorities are the most free (they can't say as much about minority civil rights in some european countries).



I wish them well.



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A very serious accusation: More evidence of Taliban leader hiding in Pakistan

A captured Taliban spokesman says Mr. Omar is hiding in Quetta, the capital of Pakistan's Balochistan Province, under the protection of Pakistan's intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).

I am inclined to believe it, given Pakistan's political situation, as well as previous reports.



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Why some Democrats worry that Clinton can't win



The problem both parties face today is that in both sets of primaries, the odds are stacked against the candidate that has a better chance in the general election. I don't think there's anybody but Hillary that can stop Hillary from getting the Democratic nomination, but the top Republican candidates (McCain and Giulani) outpoll her among the electorate at large. Problem is, I don't think either McCain or Giulani will be the Republican nominee when the dust settles. I don't think I've made any secret of the fact that I disapprove of Ms. Clinton, but there are people in the race that could cause me to vote for her if they won the Republican nomination.



What could she do to convince me she's worthy of being president? Something unpopular with her core voters but nonetheless necessary for the country. Defend the vote she made authorizing the Iraq attack. Champion social security and entitlement reform. You get the idea. In eight years, her husband failed to lead the country where it needed to go once. I'm not happy with the prospect of another four to eight years of go where the media blows, and in the case of entitlement reform, we are at a stage where further delay may move us from something that is economically survivable to something that is not.



Related: Clinton Won't Take Public Funds for Presidential Race

``No serious candidate for president in 2008 is going to accept public funds,'' Toner said.

It's just saying that she can attract more in financing without the federal limits. Seems rational to me.



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If you live where you can buy Murphy Oil products, you might want to thank them with your wallet: Co. Pledges Millions for Scholarships



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Iran Bars 38 IAEA Nuclear Inspectors

"The IAEA has about 200 inspectors it could send to Iran, so stopping 38 of them will not impede its ability to carry out inspections, at least in the short term," he said. The move "demonstrates Iran's unwillingness to accept the U.N. Security Council mandate that it suspend enrichment."

Really? Next somebody may be thinking that they might want nukes of their own or something...



(Yes, I'm being sarcastic, as it's been obvious to everyone that Iran will do anything it must to create its own nuclear weapons for at least a year)



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Dinosaur May Have Resembled the Biplane

WASHINGTON (AP) -- When the Wright Brothers first took to the sky in a biplane, they were using a design nature may have tried 125 million years earlier. A new study of one of the earliest feathered dinosaurs suggests it may have had upper and lower sets of wings, much like the biplanes of early aviation.

Fascinating. Designed properly, biplanes do increase lift, but there are issues that mean monoplanes will replace them above certain weight-cost-power-lift tradeoff points.

Q and O has two excellent articles detailing the flaws in the proposed resurrection of the fairness doctrine. The first goes into details on the political games at the heart of why they want to do it, but the second dynamites the dynamic completely. Given an individual issue, there are usually a lot more than two opposing points of view. So depending upon the political preferences of the station management, you could see a rational response that's definitely on the Republican side of the question balanced with a right wing kneejerk nutjob. Or a rational idea on the democratic side balanced with a complete raving lunatic leftwing idiot (okay, so I repeat myself - twice). If the station management is a little more sophisticated (as many liberal television stations and networks have been), they get some reasonably mainstream viewpoints on their side, then balance it with some complete extremist on the other, alienating their audience from what may be a stronger, better argument if presented with equally mainstream dressing. If an issue is "non-partisan" as so few are, editors and producers can simply pick the opposing viewpoint that either disagrees with theirs the least, thus framing the debate in terms of whether they should get 95% or 100% of what they want, or by choosing the opposing viewpoint from the extremists that can always be found, who express their disagreement in such a way that turns the vast majority of the audience away from their viewpoint.



Ronald Reagan was correct to get rid of the Fairness Doctrine. Let's leave it where it belongs.

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Mindboggling. 22% of polled Americans want the "surge" to fail, and 15% more don't know if they want it to succeed. I can envision precisely five explanations:



1. Those polled did not understand the question



2. Those polled understood the question, but are so politically partisan that they believe the casualties to 150,000 American troops are less important than having George Bush's strategy fail.



3. Those polled included 37% non-citizens, or 37% with loyalties to some other place on the globe, not the United States. If they were somehow in the United States, our illegal immigration problem must be worse than we thought (Remember that if they were here legally, INS would know about it and report their numbers).



4. The polling was conducted in Al-Qaeda headquarters, the UN General Assembly, or some other non-representative sample of places.



5. Those polled thought the question had to do with political approval, not actual success if implemented.



If I had to bet, my money would be on number 5, those who don't realize that the President already has all the authority needed to actually implement the surge proposal, but wants to "sell" the rest of the nation to give it the best possible chance.



Given what I have encountered in the way of "civil debate" lately, 2 remains a real possibility.



I'm truly ambivalent about the surge. If there is some real difference the extra troops can make by being there for a few months, yes, I'll support it. But my best understanding is that they would just increase the number of available targets, and that the important change that may lead to success has been getting the Iraqi government to sign off on new rules of engagement while cracking down on the militias and extremist clerics, such as Sadr, instead of sheltering them because they have friends inside the government. Since that's already happened, that is most likely why we've gotten all the good news from Iraq these past seven days or so.

RINO Sightings

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Okay, so it's not really schadenfreude, because it's not misfortune - these people did it to themselves.



Today's Wall Street Journal has a story (page d6 maybe - I got it from a fax)



If you are a subscriber, go to the WSJ site and search for "Ruling Faults Lender in Option ARM suit"



I won't repeat more than the high points lest I violate copyright, but basically this bank was selling negative amortization loans by pretending that it was a fixed rate loan at the nominal rate. The ruling makes clear that the lender had a responsibility to make it clear that only the payment is fixed. The court ordered the mortgage rescinded. Observers anticipate many similar lawsuits in the future (no kidding!)



I have had a number of people bring me sales pitches that they thought were for other types of mortgage due to the way the loan officers phrased things, but were really pitches for negative amortization. I wrote about one such couple in Games Lenders Play (Part IV). These people had no clue that these mortgages they were being pitched were negative amortization, with all their problems. Given my comparatively low traffic level and the fact that people keep being conned to themselves, I somehow doubt that these are the only people out there who have been burned.



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Flying their own planes saves time



Well, if you have to get to the airport 3 hours early for commercial aviation, that puts you 500 miles away in a small aircraft - much further than it sounds if you're thinking driving distance - and then you lose another 45 minutes to an hour getting your luggage. Not counting connecting flights and waiting for them.



On the other hand, general aviation is much more difficult than driving, and mistakes that will make you have to pull off to the side of the road in a car can kill you in an airplane. You need to be involved every minute with the plane, and maintain it, and prepare painstakingly for every flight. Buying the plane is also not for the weak of wallet. Back to the first hand, flying is not only rewarding, but fun, even while you're working your backside off.

U.S. plane manufacturers shipped 2,024 single-engine piston planes in 2005, up 19% from 2004. The industry expects an increase when 2006 numbers are tallied, and the same number or more this year.

But that's a long way from 35 years ago, where they delivered something like 20,000 per year. The ending of VA benefits for learning how to fly played a role in the decline, but thing that killed the industry was unlimited liability of the manufacturers. Cessna, Piper, and Beechcraft were once the three largest manufacturers of light aircraft in the world. No longer. Cessna and Piper shut down production of single engine aircraft completely in the eighties due to liability issues. When you're liable for the result when somebody buys the plane running it into the side of a mountain 12 years later, it makes it tough to do business. I'd guess that the costs of litigation still forms a large part of the price tag of new aircraft, as the prices I remember are much lower, and the article tends to confirm.



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"Well, the Anvil is falling at Mach speed and half a second from smashing everything, maybe I had better say something":



Bernanke: Budget action needed before "storm"



Calling the coming entitlement disaster a "storm" is like calling a Cat V Hurricane "a little wind"

Observation: There is an urban legend about how if you throw a frog into boiling water, he'll jump out, but if you put the frog in while it's cold and gradually heat it, he'll stay and get cooked. This isn't true, of course. If you throw a frog into boiling water, he will die a terrible, agonizing death. Nor will the frog stay in the slowly heated water past the point at which it begins to be uncomfortable. Frogs aren't that stupid.



But people are! Cases in point: terrorism, illegal immigration, our creeping nanny state, tax withholding, welfare, the maze of regulations that we live under that make it impossible for any person to live within all of them, all of the wealth transfer and rent seeking behaviors that our government enforces upon us... How many do you want?

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Evidence against allegations that we live in a police state: Bush won't reauthorize U.S. eavesdropping program

The president has determined not to reauthorize the Terrorist Surveillance Program when the current authorization expires," Gonzales wrote in a letter to congressional leaders that disclosed the administration's shift in approach.



Bush has reauthorized the program every 45 days, and the current authorization is mid-cycle, a senior Justice Department official said. Gonzales said a recent secret-court approval allowed the government to act effectively without the program.

No matter how effective the alternatives are, police states do not do this.



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Death Spirals are "stable" Castro successors keep Cuba on stable track. So are dead people, dead economies, dead animals...



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Conservatives? On network TV? It's true. but the story also notes that the writers are having trouble maintaining the character's conservative orientations.



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Armies of Liberation reports on yet another legacy of dictatorial rule in Yemen: Malnutrition in children.

Real Clear Politics: Sandy Berger: What Did He Take and Why Did He Take It?

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Maybe it's because I live in San Diego, and my father started taking me to the zoo before he taught me math or chess, but I pay attention to things like this: Scientists try to save world's rarest creatures.



Here is the EDGE home page. Being lucky enough to have the San Diego Zoo, Wild Animal Park, and Sea World all within an hour means I've been lucky enough to have seen 27 of the 100 species on their list. I was disappointed to not to see the Guam Rail on their list. It was extinct in the wild; when I did a web search I found that page that indicates it has been re-introduced, much like the California Condor, so when we pass the San Diego Zoo's in the future, now I can tell my girls that this may be a success story like the California Condor someday, rather than to take a good look as it may be one of the last anyone gets.



We are not owners, but stewards. Whereas historically species have been going extinct since the beginning of life on earth (one example that had nothing to do with Western Civilization), the demands humans place upon earth's environment mean that we need to do what we reasonably can to preserve the other species that share the planet with us.



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The next time somebody puffs out their chest for having "spoke truth to power" for having insulted George W. Bush, consider that he has done exactly nothing to political opponents and critics of the administration in six years. Then compare and contrast to this news from Venezuela.

Chavez says he fully respects freedom of speech, and that turning over the channel's frequency to a "community" station will help democratize the airwaves, providing "communication power to those who almost never have a voice."



Venezuela's radio dial now includes hundreds of mostly state-financed and Chavez-friendly "community" stations, and three state-run TV channels have been launched since Chavez took office. They feature musicians singing songs about "El Comandante," segments calling opposition leaders CIA agents and documentaries about Argentine-born revolutionary Ernesto "Che" Guevara. Cuban-produced cartoons feature peasants who prevent invading soldiers from seizing a palm-dotted island.

Funny how all these "community" stations just happen to hew to exactly the line Chavez most wants them to.

Two of those four channels have since toned down their criticism, while RCTV and Globovision have stayed their course despite sometimes-violent demonstrations. During pro-Chavez protests in 2004, an Associated Press reporter watched as a Chavez supporter fired shots at RCTV's studios while others rammed an ice cream truck into the wall, then set the truck afire.

Somebody should tell those other two channels about the definition of appeasement: Being nice to an alligator in the hopes it will eat you last.



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House votes to lift reverse mortgage cap for FHA



Not the dollar value, but the number it's permitted to manage, according to the article.



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Hong Kong limits pregnant Chinese women

Many come to evade China's one-child policy, take advantage of higher quality health care or earn Hong Kong residency rights for their babies.

See also Anchor Babies







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No softies in Canada's campy Pillow Fight League

The bigger picture involves a TV deal. Case says he has already turned down bids that didn't offer the mix of attention to the action and characters that he says makes the league more of a draw to the arts community than the mud-wrestling crowd.

Television always aims for the lowest common denominator, even the networks have to divide by zero. Assuming it really is an "art-house movie" crowd, if they were willing to watch what's on TV for free, that's where they would be.

Carnival of The Insanities Recommended: 10 things to think about for 2007



Carnival of Personal Finance



Carnival of The Capitalists Recommended: Econbrowser (Whether the New Deal prolonged the Depression), Execpundit (issues with diversity versus EEO and Affirmative Action



On the other hand, some of the ignorance I saw this week causes me to re-issue my standard warning: Just because it's posted to a carnival doesn't mean the advice contained in a carnival is worth anything.

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Let's be careful out there: Do-it-Yourself Phishing Kit Found Online



If you get a "problem with your account" email, it should mention you by name. Even if it does, never click the link, and taking sanitation measures is advisable. If you must check out your account, close your browser first, then start it back up and go to the site via your usual method (bookmark or URL entry).



Seems to me that I get at least half a dozen "problem with your account" spams per week, and it is rarely for places that I even have accounts, but for people who have more accounts on line than I do, it may be more likely. When I can debunk 99% with "I don't have an account there," and 99% of what remains with "They don't know about this email address" it makes it less challenging to resist the urge to panic when I get one allegedly from a place where I do have an account and to an email address they know about.



One of the ones that's becoming standard is the eBay complaint. Somebody sends an email alleging someone has complained about your business practices to the eBay tracking. Once again, do not click the link in the email. Open the URL yourself via bookmark or manual entry. It is comparatively easy to make the link looks like it goes to one place and actually sends you somewhere else - which then mimics the appropriate website. People wouldn't be willing to buy such a do it yourself kit if it weren't profitable. Don't be one of the people that gets burned.

Reminder: My seminar on First Time Home Buyer Programs is tomorrow night, Thursday January 11, at 7 pm.



Judging from reservations (less than 1/4 of the small space), most people know everything important about local first time buyer programs.

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This was sent to someone in my office:

Subject: Denver Weather Bulletin



Up here, in the "Mile-Hi City", we just recovered from a Historic event--- may I even say a "Weather Event" of "Biblical Proportions" --- with a historic blizzard of up to 44" inches of snow and winds to 90 MPH that broke trees in half, knocked down utility poles, stranded hundreds of motorists in lethal snow banks, closed ALL roads, isolated scores of communities and cut power to tens of thousands.



FYI:



George Bush did not come.



FEMA did nothing.



No one howled for the government.



No one blamed the government.



No one even uttered an expletive on TV.



Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton did not visit.



Our Mayor did not blame Bush or anyone else.



Our Governor did not blame Bush or anyone else, either.



CNN, ABC, CBS, FOX or NBC did not visit - or report on this category 5 snowstorm. Nobody demanded $2,000 debit cards.



No one asked for a FEMA Trailer House.



No one looted.



Nobody - I mean Nobody demanded the government do something.



Nobody expected the government to do anything, either.



No Larry King, No Bill O'Rielly, No Oprah, No Chris Mathews and No Geraldo Rivera.



No Shaun Penn, No Barbara Striesand, No Hollywood types to be found.



Nope, we just melted the snow for water.



Sent out caravans of SUV's to pluck people out of snow engulfed cars.



The truck drivers pulled people out of snow banks and didn't ask for a penny.



Local restaurants made food and the police and fire departments delivered it to the snowbound families.



Families took in the stranded people - total strangers.



We fired up wood stoves, broke out coal oil lanterns or Coleman lanterns.



We put on extra layers of clothes because up here it is "Work or Die".



We did not wait for some affirmative action government to get us out of a mess created by being immobilized by a welfare program that trades votes for 'sittin at home' checks.



Even though a Category "5" blizzard of this scale has never fallen this early, we know it can happen and how to deal with it ourselves.



I hope this gets passed on.



Maybe SOME people will get the message. The world does Not owe you a living.

Carnival of Personal Finance Recommended: One Year Exit Plan



Carnival of Investing



RINO Sightings Recommended: Armies of Liberation (Yemeni collaboration with Iraqi Ba'athists)

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Ancient Roman road found in Netherlands

The stretch of road discovered in Houten is believed to have connected two forts - Traiectum, which gives its name to the modern city of Utrecht, and Fectio, modern Vechten

I just love history and how it layers!



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Breaking the Hold of Hegemonist Doctrine



This guy makes sense.



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Still don't feel much like writing. The article I wrote earlier this evening, Just Because You Don't Believe In an Antropomorphic Deity Doesn't Mean You're Not Religious, was written in a pique of severe annoyance with some sanctimonious twits who want to appoint themselves the chosen guardians of public debate. I'm not Christian and I've certainly been annoyed and exasperated by some pigheaded examples of that religion in the past, but just because someone is annoyed does not remove anyone's constitutional rights or the reasons for those rights. Depressed as I am right now, I have even less patience for weak minded selfish fools than usual.



I still miss my little symbiont. Perhaps even more than my parents were, he's a hard loss to take because he and his antics were so much a part of my daily life. I'm coming back; it's to the point now where I can see where jokes might be funny, and by the end of the week I think I'll probably be ready to laugh at some of them. I'm so grateful to my wife for helping me through this that words fail.



One item I could use some help with: Our other dog, Mellon, who is several months younger than Thing was. Dogs are social pack creatures by nature. Mellon has never been by herself in her life, and she's crying when she gets lonely. Neither getting another dog nor allowing her to sleep with us is on the list of options right now. I need to buy a new pillow anyway and I'm considering giving her the old one, because it smells like her favorite human. Anyone have any other ideas, or experience with this particular problem?

Don Surber:

Hussein's carnage averaged 70 to 125 civilian deaths every day for the 8,000 days he reigned. His 20,000 civilian deaths a year (on average) were considered "peace" while last year, under war, there were 14,298 civilians deaths.

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Nixon vowed to 'ruin Foreign Service'. Except for Bill Clinton, I'm not certain that there's been a president whose foreign policy wouldn't have benefited if he'd been successful. State has become a bureaucracy with a momentum all its own, looking out for its own comfort, and where it hasn't actively worked to frustrate foreign policy aims (our current president) it has definitely worked at cross purposes (Reagan). Mind you, it might have saved us from the worst Carter could do, but when we have had focused, dynamic presidents, it has mostly hurt them or detracted from the message.



Coming from Nixon, the president with strongest foreign policy credentials of any since FDR, this is damning:

Winston Lord, a top aide to Kissinger during the 1970s, said Nixon looked on the Foreign Service as dominated by liberals and as generally "cautious, unimaginative, slow-moving and risk-averse."



He said Nixon was given to hyperbole and his "extreme" comments about dismantling the Foreign Service should be seen in that light.

Kind of lends credence and weight to this story that headlines Negroponte's replacement as National Intelligence Director, but mentions the facts that Negroponte is one of our current president's "go to" folks.

Negroponte, who took over in April 2005 as the nation's first intelligence chief, has held a series of tough posts in the Bush administration and has been at the center of the Iraq debate since before the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003. He served as U.S. ambassador to the U.N. from 2001 to 2004 and ambassador to Baghdad until March 2005 before becoming intelligence ch

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How to go to MIT for free

By the end of this year, the contents of all 1,800 courses taught at one of the world's most prestigious universities will be available online to anyone in the world, anywhere in the world. Learners won't have to register for the classes, and everyone is accepted.



The cost? It's all free of charge.



The OpenCourseWare movement, begun at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 2002 and now spread to some 120 other universities worldwide, aims to disperse knowledge far beyond the ivy-clad walls of elite campuses to anyone who has an Internet connection and a desire to learn.

Online courses for free from MIT! If free time weren't something I just read about once, if I actually had any, that would certainly be a productive use.



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Things that make you go "Hmmm." Google says bought stake in China's Xunlei



Would they have been able to if they hadn't "played ball" with the Chinese censors? Doubt it.



Explicit payoff? Don't think so, but Google certainly got along for going along.

More than 80 million users have installed Shenzhen-based Xunlei's software and its Web sites attract more than 50 million visitors a day, the China Daily said.



Baidu.com Inc. (Nasdaq:BIDU - news) controlled nearly 57 percent of China's search-engine market at the end of June, according to Analysis International, a Beijing-based IT research company.



Sources have said both Baidu and Google, which has only 16 percent of the China market, are exploring options to expand their online video services in the world's fourth-largest economy.

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Warm body: Check, but not at 37 degrees centigrade! Bank issues credit card to cat



Time to revoke the dogs' internet privileges.



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via Tinkerty Tonk, Political Quiz



I'm sceptical of anything that wants to put political leanings on a single scale, but I came out a 33. Questions where there wasn't any kind of a good answer:



More to guarantee competitive elections: Public financing or term limits? Neither of the above. Getting rid of gerrymanders for this purpose or that, or any reason at all other than equal population among districts.



More extreme, Jocelyn Elders or Pat Robertson? They needed a "both", but I'll grudgingly take Pat Robertson, as Jocelyn Elders is occasionally rational. Entirely by accident, I'm certain, but it's a claim Pat Robertson can't make without every adult in the room laughing.



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A quiz on the past year from Bill O'Reilly. I got 10 of 20, mostly from stuff that might be construed as actual news. (Anybody that pays attention to Barbara Streisand's politics obviously has too much of that "free time" I keep hearing about).



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Slow day at work, what can I say?

Carnival of Personal Finance



Carnival of The Capitalists Recommended: Sox First (top ten business shenanigans for 2006)



Carnival of Investing Recommended: Ask Uncle Bill (cutting interest rates on student loans)

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I may not be myself for a while. I've got a very sick little dog who has been very important to me for the last fourteen years. Just by being himself, he pulled me out of a funk when I had basically lost faith in the whole idea of friendship. There's not much you can do for kidney failure in a dog. We've been treating it by controlling his diet, but it has become increasingly obvious that that was a delaying tactic only, as he has become progressively thinner. He's not in pain, but he has become unwilling to eat almost everything. This evening he only ate half of what I gave him of one of his favorite foods, so I have to accept at this time that I'm probably only going to have him for a few more days, at most. Tomorrow actually marks 14 years since he came to live with me, and without him and the restoration of my attitude that he worked, I would not have been the person my wife married. I'm going to keep him as long as he's not in pain, but I don't know how long that will be. I'm going to spend as much time as I can with him while he's still here, and I still have to work. So if there's not a lot left over for new articles here for a while, please understand.

THERE is sorrow enough in the natural way

From men and women to fill our day;

And when we are certain of sorrow in store,

Why do we always arrange for more?

Brothers and Sisters, I bid you beware

Of giving your heart to a dog to tear.



Buy a pup and your money will buy

Love unflinching that cannot lie--

Perfect passion and worship fed

By a kick in the ribs or a pat on the head.

Nevertheless it is hardly fair

To risk your heart for a dog to tear.



When the fourteen years which Nature permits

Are closing in asthma, or tumour, or fits,

And the vet's unspoken prescription runs

To lethal chambers or loaded guns,

Then you will find--it's your own affair--

But . . . you've given your heart to a dog to tear.



When the body that lived at your single will,

With its whimper of welcome, is stilled (how still!).

When the spirit that answered your every mood

Is gone--wherever it goes--for good,

You will discover how much you care,

And will give your heart to a dog to tear.



We've sorrow enough in the natural way,

When it comes to burying Christian clay.

Our loves are not given, but only lent,

At compound interest of cent per cent.

Though it is not always the case, I believe,

That the longer we've kept 'em, the more do we grieve.

For, when debts are payable, right or wrong,

A short-time loan is as bad as a long--

So why in--Heaven (before we are there)

Should we give our hearts to a dog to tear?



-Rudyard Kipling

If you've had a dog, you know the answer. But that doesn't make it any easier when the time comes.

Michelle Malkin extensively researches pro and con of the alleged Israeli ambulance attack. After looking at the evidence presented, I have to come down firmly on the side of "It sure looks staged to me."

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Saddam Hussein Executed



I would like to say I'm sorry that he's dead, but that would be a lie. There's a horrible mean little voice inside of me singing "Ding Dong, the witch is dead!" but I'm certain I'll pay for that karmically somehow. No matter how evil he was, to rejoice at another's death is wrong.



The man was evil. In order to move Iraq forward and bring closure to his horrible regime and the horrendous crimes perpetrated by it, he had to die. Either by execution or by waiting for him to die in prison, and this way removes one very concrete incentive for continued violence by his supporters (which are few) or those who might use him for their own ends (which are many). The Iraqi people and government did precisely the right thing in putting on an admirably restrained trial, and carrying out the verdict and sentence quickly.



It doesn't begin to do justice for his victims. It certainly doesn't bring them back. It certainly doesn't end the current insurgency, which has little to do with die-hard Ba'athists. It does close, once and for all, the brutally repressive Ba'athist chapter in Iraqi history.



Iraq the Model has the view from a much closer observer.



Don't remember where I read it, but we may end up wishing we had treated him like the Nuremburg defendants after WWII: Those found guilty were cremated after execution, and their ashes scattered at sea, to forestall their graves becoming rallying points for German resistance. The Ba'athists are essentially gone. But those remain who could pervert Saddam Hussein's memory to their own ends.



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Now that Saddam Hussein is dead, Scrappleface notes the release of a Woodward interview with him.



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via willisms, America's Red Ink



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Tigerhawk on the nature of risk and the value of being able to take it.



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Riehl World View has some perspective.



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Mark Steyn wants some resolution, or resolve.