Zee Links and Minifeatures: August 2007 Archives

This is to clean out the Links and Minifeatures from stuff I've noticed over the past few days.

I've found a forum that might have the information on Movable Type 4 I need.  Hoping to have the switch made before next week.

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U.S. sees "precarious" year for Iraqi government



The biggest US failure in Iraq has been failing to force the Iraqi government to solve problems, rather than fighting over control. 
Of course, we have just a little bit of that problem here at home.



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U.S. missile shield is provocation: Austrian minister



Like wearing body armor is provocation for mugging?



The article didn't indicate what reasoning the man might have had.  Likely, he doesn't have any.  He is the defense minister for a state that might as well not have a military.  Don't expect him to be a genius.  Expect him to be a political hack, with a lot more concern for what is easy politics right now than for actually defending its citizens.



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Mortgages: Smaller Banks Smell Blood



I keep saying there are lenders out there who want to lend money.  And I'm always looking for more wholesale providers.  Not that it's hard to find them if you know where to look.



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Subprime Mortgage Crisis Spreading to High-End Housing Market


If that sounds familiar to you, I wrote about it over three weeks ago as the first entry in Links and Minifeatures 08 09 Thursday.  AP's just picking up on it.

San Diego Special Edition

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Victor Davis Hanson with a long but wonderful article upon the study of war.



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Here's a contest:



How many things can you spot wrong with these prescriptions: 3 ways to help borrowers without bailing them out



They propose:



-allowing bankruptcy judges to modify mortgages

-doing away with taxes on mortgage debt forgiveness

-education and advice (actually, I don't spot anything wrong with this one, at least not immediately, but it would be better before the contracts are signed).



Respond in comments. I'm going to try to have a full article on this sometime soon.

If anyone out there still thinks John Edwards is really concerned about "the little guy": Edwards linked to subprime foreclosures



The further down the sewer we flush this false populist demogogue, the safer we are as a society. It occurs to me that perhaps he is a result of the Democratic bigwigs looking for someone that makes Kerry (2004) and Hillary (2008) look good. Kind of like Pat Buchannan and George Bush the elder. The difference is that nobody made excuses for Pat Buchanan.



Via Carol Platt Liebau



Captain's Quarters has much more.

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Via Dean's World, something to think about: The King of Anti-Fascism



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This prediction required about as much thought as watching a rock that's already falling to the ground. Needless to say, it's been borne out.



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I'll try and have more than two new specialty articles next week.



Looks like I'm going to be the new keeper of the list for the consumer oriented real estate carnival.

Consumer Focused Carnival of Real Estate



Carnival of Capitalists

Carnival of Personal Finance Recommended: Beware of the Invincibility Complex

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Alternative Medicine Threatens Beasts with Extinction





One reason who ecology minded folks should be grateful for the invention of Viagra:

On occasion, medicines that work help reduce the demand for medicines that don't: David Stryker, a New Mexican physician on safari at the Kenyan game park, noted that one unintended consequence of Viagra is that it has slowed the poaching of rhinos and other endangered species.

One other thing that doesn't get emphasized enough:

In his book "The Devil's Chaplain," Oxford University's Richard Dawkins states: "There is no alternative medicine. There is only medicine that works and medicine that doesn't work."

I'll stick with medicines that have been successfully vetted by clinical trials, thank you very much.



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Wannabe Snakes on a Plane

In the last week or so, nonconforming A paper has really been hit. While available conforming rates have actually gone down, nonconforming has gone up by over half a percent. Picking one of yesterday's rate sheet at random, I can do a 30 year fixed rate loan at 6.5 percent at retail par (in other words, no points to the consumer). I appear to have picked one of the worse spreads because I know I've got better than this, but the lowest fee from the same lender on the nonconforming table is 8 percent - which costs 2.5 points retail (I just priced one at 7.25 for 2 points retail).



Fannie and Freddie backed loans are doing just fine. The issue is that "stated income" loans of conforming size traditionally use the same rate table as larger "full documentation" loans. Since the real problem appears to be stated income - even at high credit ratings - tarring both customer classes with the sins of one is not exactly the most competitive thing that lenders can do. I can think of three or four possible fixes to the situation right off the bat. I expect that the smart folks who are paid the big bucks by the lenders to be able to think of all of these and more. I further expect the lenders will do something on the individual lender level as quickly as top management can agree upon what to do.



Now conforming is what those whose properties are worth up to 125% of the conforming limit of $417,000, or $521,250, should be looking for. This is most folks, even in high priced San Diego. As long as Fannie or Freddie likes your loan, rates are still good and the loans are easy to do. This is part of the reason for my mantra about "guard your credit and only sign up for loans you can afford."



For Fannie and Freddie, investing in mortgages is what they specialize in. In fact, it's the only thing they're allowed to do, assuming I understand correctly. Other investors are allowed to do other things, and right now The Word is out the mortgage investments aren't as secure as they usually are, so investors are panicking and doing other things even more than is rational. Panicked people do strange and silly things, as anybody who watches the financial markets knows. It'll likely settle out fairly soon. Meantime, the tightened supply of mortgage money means that if Fannie and Freddie don't like your loan, the price of the money is going to be higher.

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via the puppy blender, Thomas Sowell saying a few things that should sound familiar to my readers.



For example, here and here and here



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Winter Soldier Syndrome

Think it doesn't make a difference? Imagine where Sen. John Kerry would be now if the Internet had been around in 1971.

On the other hand, we might have President John Edwards. Some prices are just too high to pay.

Here's something useful, with many properties locally worth less than their purchase price. If you're one of those who paid more than the property is now worth, you can have your property re-assessed downwards in value - if you file by September 15, 2007. I did this back in 1993, and it lowered my taxes for a couple years. They restored it to original purchase price, compounded, when property values went crazy in the late nineties, Of course. Nonetheless, my assessment now is a fraction of what comparable properties are selling for.



Of course, it's probably not a good idea to be telling the property assessment board one thing and a lender something else at the same time. Just saying.



Application For Changed Assessment - PDF Version

Application For Changed Assessment - Microsoft Word Version



If for some reason, one of the links doesn't work, here's the page I found it on: Assessment Appeals Board

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Iran sees U.S. plot to topple its leadership

An Iranian minister said he believed the United States had dropped the idea of attacking Iran but wanted to topple its leadership through what he called a "soft revolution".



Intelligence Minister Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, a cleric, said Iran's enemies had waged "psychological warfare" to prepare for military action against the Islamic Republic.

And the fact that your people have been oppressed for thirty years to the point that they hate your guts has nothing to do with it?



Oh, I'm sure if George Bush could topple the Iranian clerics with some little nudge, he'd do it. Failure to take advantage of such an opportunity would have anyone rational calling for impeachment. But it's going to take quite a shove to topple the Iranian Imams, and we'd have to sustain it for years. Neither the political concensus nor the will is there, and everyone in this country knows it. Which means that the Iranians are pretty much stuck doing their own heavy lifting.



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The air traffic mess from a passenger viewpoint and from an industry viewpoint



The critical point?

* Third, give commercial flights a higher priority than other system users to protect schedule integrity; the passengers and airlines that fund more than 90% of the costs of air traffic services deserve nothing less.

Industry has been wanting priority over other flights for decades, but AOPA has quite a lobby. Nonetheless, management has been known to accommodate industry. One guy I knew was called into the air traffic manager's office, yelled, at, and told, "Put the (commercial airliner) out first!"



"You mean, give them priority even though the other plane's been waiting longer?" This is contrary to the handbook and stated policy of the FAA, by the way.



"No, I didn't say to give him priority, but put him out first!"



This kind of speaking out of both sides of their mouth is one reason I'm glad I don't work for those bozos any longer. I actually think it's most reasonable to charge for landing and departure slots according to how impacted the airport is and how much time you take up. Industry would likely be willing to pay more for the privilege, which reduces to their customers paying, of course, but how far do we want to go?



My take is here.

Someone sent me this link to Jim Cramer losing his cool.



Well, coming from where he's coming from, I don't blame him. The fact remains that he's wrong about "you can't get loans." I actually already have an article set to go tomorrow (August 7th, 2007 ) about the lending meltdown from a consumer standpoint (it'll be here when it publishes). There are solvent lenders who badly want business.



We always knew that the 100% Stated Income, Stated Asset loan was not going to be around forever. Problem is, most agents and loan officers don't know how to tell people to stick to properties they can really afford. Many don't know any other way of doing business. When you can make it look like a minimum wage employee qualifies for a $500,000 property, what do you think most sales persons are going to do? The money I could have made these last two or three years if I was willing to do that would have me set for life.



From the point of view of certain investment managers, who have only been paying attention to the reward and not to the risk of mortgage related securities, there's about a decade of reckoning coming. Many of the fixed income investment folks really are in a world of hurt, and I do expect rates to continue to rise in broad, as the supply of easy money dries up. This doesn't change the fact that these investors and managers did it to themselves. Yes, I'd like to see rates dropped, but we're looking at the impetus for a period of heightened inflation if we do, because the economy is so good, and that would hurt a lot of people, not the least of whom are bankers. The Federal Reserve Board is composed of bankers, not economists, not investors. I expect the Fed to sit tight. I could be wrong, but if I waited until the facts were incontrovertible, my predictive value would be zero.

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Bad Thai cops to endure Kitty shame

Police officers caught littering, parking in a prohibited area, or arriving late - among other misdemeanors - will be forced to stay in the division office and wear the armband all day, said Police Col. Pongpat Chayaphan. The officers won't wear the armband in public.

If this doesn't work, they'll go to really drastic measures: Barney



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Not that I thought the Breck Boy was any kind of economic heavyweight, but Edwards jabs at former President Clinton shows how stupid he really is. It's one of the few things President Clinton got mostly right. Of course, Clinton inherited a mostly negotiated treaty from his predecessor...



All Edwards is doing is feeding his populist image, even though his populism is not even skin deep.



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Captain's Quarters lambastes a partisan response to California's proposed change in how it allocates electoral college votes.



I don't think it'd be just a good idea in the big states. The more I think about it, the more I think it's a good idea for everyone.

July set another new traffic record at 149,342 visits, for a running total of 1,960,932 visits. At this pace, the two millionth visit should hit sometime in the second week of August. 17 months for the first million, not quite 9 months for the second. I doubt I'm going to continue to see that pace of increase, but it's a good boost for the ego.



Thank you all for stopping by.

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Congressional Privilege 535, Accountability 0: Court: FBI violated Constitution in raid



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A visual rebuttal to those moonbats claiming the war in Iraq caused the bridge collapse in Minnesota.



National Defense: 19% of the national budget.

Entitlement Spending: 21+14+13+10= 58%



Not to mention a little thing like the bridge was known to be in need of upgrade before Kuwait was invaded in 1990, leaving a minimum of 12 years during which there was no Iraq invasion and nothing was done.



Don't get me wrong. I'm plenty upset that the bridge collapsed. I'm just not willing to blame it upon the scapegoat of the moment.



Entitlement spending is found nowhere in the Constitution as a power or responsibility of the federal government. I'm not saying repeal it, as many of those receiving it were forced to pay into the system their entire working lives and are counting upon it now that they can no longer work. But we can certainly work to trim a budgetary category that is three times the size of the much maligned defense budget.



Congress and the state legislatures have made other things a priority because infrastructure projects don't buy very many votes for their cost, unlike checks in the mailbox on the third of every month. For their part, corporate America hasn't exactly helped the situation. The whole thing is one more tragedy of the commons, and there's more than enough blame to go around to every single legislator and congresscritter of both major parties who has served in the last twenty years or so. I am angry and disgusted. But I won't let myself be distracted by a scapegoat. If the commerce clause of the constitution permits federal involvement in the construction of infrastructure, that and basic fiscal prudence require the performance of much cheaper maintenance once such infrastructure is in place.



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Ramona is back! No more three hours on the freeway just to drop off little Ramona and pick her up! I've even got a new article set for tomorrow!