Zee Links and Minifeatures: April 2006 Archives

Carnival of Liberty Recommended: New World Man (with an offensive topic warning!)



Carnival of The Vanities Recommended: Liberal Wrong

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Iran ready to transfer nuclear know how



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Mine blast survivor says some men's air packs didn't work. This is potentially big, and this is potentially bad. Like some folks should be going to jail big. They were "found to be operative" by the governor's advisor, but if the folks who were supposed to be able to use them to save their lives couldn't use them, I see the following possibilities:



1) Survivor misremembers, or has his own reasons for saying some of them didn't work. For instance, if he establishes that they didn't work, the mine operator and government have a larger liability towards him.



2) Mine management failed to train workers to use them properly. In other words, deadly failure to comply with OSHA.



3) They appeared not to work even though they were functioning properly. In other words, poor equipment design. When your life depends on something, it should be plainly operating or not operating. This is also an OSHA issue, albeit engineering rather than criminal.



4) They did not work properly, despite claim that they did. It could be that they didn't test every one of them, or it could be that they said they were working for liability and/or political reasons, not expecting the only survivor to be able to make hash of their statement. If this is the case, heads need to roll from among those who claimed they did, as well as from those who were responsible for keeping them working.



My belief is that 1 or 4 are the most likely by Occam's Razor. The fact is that both sets of folks may have reasons to want the world to believe what may not be the real facts of the situation. But 2 and 3 also need to be checked out.



Here's more: Feds Try to Reassure Miners on Air Packs



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Don Surber did have a nice little article about the etiquette of blogging and journalism.



I agree, but want to add one more rule: Give folks the maximum reasonable benefit of the doubt. I'm not talking thirty thousand unimpeachable witnesses and ten clear photographic records. But if the facts leave wiggle room, most folks are pretty decent people. Automatically assuming the worst, about anyone, does nobody any good. I can tell you good things, sometimes a surprisingly large number of good things, about most of the worst excuses for a human being who have ever walked the planet, including most current politicians of the party I dislike most. Furthermore, inflating trivial offenses leaves us proportionally less concerned about real atrocities.



While I'm at it, since Mr. Surber prompted me, I'll link to EFF's legal guide for bloggers.



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It was only a matter of time department: Ransom Trojan horse demands money with menaces



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Who says it's the capitalists who will sell the hangman the rope to hang them with? Chinese envoy opposes resorting to Chapter 7 resolution on Iran



Meanwhile: Nuclear Agency Says Iran Has Defied U.N. Security Council Deadline to Freeze Uranium Enrichment



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Debunking the Race card on social security reform



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Lot of this going around: CT settles suit against 'predatory' home brokers. Going to get worse, too. Look at how long that one took to get through the courts.



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Eidelblog thoroughly debunks a socialist's agenda driven representations.



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Oh, that liberal media bias, part infinity plus one: Carol Platt Liebau has the deconstruction.



(Yes, I'm well aware of the mathmatics of infinity. I'm making a couple of points)



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Every so often, I go over to the big leftist echo chambers to see if they have anything that changes my mind. Usually I find stuff like this: Dems sue Bush to enforce Constitution



Doing a little bit of research, I find out that despite the howls of outrage on how horrible it is, the actual thing they were intending to pass is more favorable to the claimant, and the medicare industry is trying to get it changed. In short, the left is decrying the Elephants caving to lobbyists, when in fact the correct version of the bill passed by congress is less favorable to the industry because it gives them less rental income!



The bills were certified by the leadership, and passed in correct, non-typo form to the President for signature, and the error was certified to be a typo, like any number of other such typos that creep into bills from time to time, and have historically been dealt with in precisely this fashion. But the Donkeys are seizing it as another opportunity to drag their feet.



I'm all in favor of the government dragging their feet, of course, but if we're going to drag our feet, let's drag

our feet. Stop all non-essential functions until this gets resolved! No more government checks to anyone!





While I'm over at left wing sites, Democratic Underground re-emphasizes why I often call Donkeys "Dumbocrats" just like I'll call Elephants "Repugnantcans". They're all over it with quotes like "What kind of a reality disconnect is this? Dude pleads GUILTY, HIMSELF, to FELONY charges, and the House committee finds NO wrongdoing?"



Except that if you carefully read the source article, here, you find it's an audit of how ex-congresscritter Cunningham might have improperly influenced the work of the committee due to his bribery. Their conclusion? One program got into their markup, but wasn't a part of the final budget. So although Cunningham admitted taking bribes, the net effect on the government (at least through this committee) was zero.



In other words, if they were trying to be red-blooded americans watch-dogging their government, rather than partisan attack dogs, this would be the sort of news to cheer about. "Millions of dollars in bribes paid to no discernable effect" would be the essentially accurate summation. Furthermore, Congresscritter Hunter (also a local San Diego Elephant) was entirely willing to expand the proble from three years to fifteen.



And if you don't like reading that scum bribing our public officials got nothing for their money, you are likely suffering, like Ford Prefect, from a deficiency in moral fiber and can thereforebe excused from saving universes (or anything else).





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via Different River, Cafe Hayek has the goods on the real way to cut down on the high price of energy.



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HT to Decision '08, the tomatometer on United 93 is at 92% right now. Considering all the good buzz it's gotten, I may see if the wife and I can't get away to see it.



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Iraq the Model says the time to dissolve the militias is now, and I strongly agree. Not just due to their armaments, but also due to the fact that it's a bad thing. Can you imagine if there was a Democratic Underground militia and a Free Republic Militia?



(Actually, I can. The DU'ers would forget who spends time taking target practice, get frustrated, and open fire on the Freepers. Fifteen minutes later, the DU is extinct while the Freepers are down a couple of percent, mostly casualties of friendly fire).



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Read this and ask yourself his critical question: Day-By-Day, Hour-by-Hour, and Minute-By-Minute The Murdering Goes On



If not now, when? If not me, who? Once upon a time it was every person of conscience who asked these questions, whether or not they were political supporters of the current president.



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Armies of Liberation has more on the targeting of journalists in Yemen by the Saleh regime.

RINO Sightings Recommended: Politburo Diktat, Mind of Mog, Techography,



Carnival of Personal Finance Recommended: All Financial Matters (Monte Carlo hypotheticals are better than planning based upon average returns!)



Carnival of The Capitalists is in an unusual place this week.

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Gas prices continue to be a big topic of conversation. The real supply bottleneck is in refineries. The other cause is price speculation due to Iranian saber rattling.



When demand exceeds supply, prices go up. So simple my six year old can usually remember it. I'm not happy to be paying $3 per gallon for gas, but I'm doing what I can. I drive a small sedan that gets good mileage. I'm in favor of building new refineries and increasing production, and I'm willing to be pretty flexible where this stuff is built. I'm in favor of national fuel standards, so the companies involved can refine 3 or 5 kinds of gasoline, instead of about 45. I'm in favor of increasing nuclear power as well as wind generation and geothermal, so that things which can easily be driven by alternate power generation will be.



If you are in favor of all of the above, it's okay to be angry at the boneheadedness of your fellow citizens causing gas prices to rise. Otherwise, if you want to know what's causing the price of gas to rise, go look in a mirror.



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Q and O has a good article on the Federal Government aiding and abetting identity thieves, aka illegal aliens and the employers who employ them.



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Strata-Sphere has all kinds of interesting revelations on Mary McCarthy, the CIA employee who was fired for leaking.



Big Lizards thinks the CIA prisons story was one large canary trap.



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Captain's Quarters covers some fundraising shenanigans.



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I think I need an enforced layoff for a few days. Don't be surprised if it goes to the rest of the week.

Carnival of Vanities is finally up very late.

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PT Barnum's Estimate Was Way Too Low Department: Phony doctor gives free breast exams. Let me get this straight: 76 year old man going door to door posing as a doctor offering free breast exams, and at least two women in their 30s believe him? Nor, after reading the article, do I hold out much hope that they knew better but were looking for some action.



The Yahoo story has a picture of the guy, although Yahoo links are notoriously impermanent.



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Brings a whole new meaning to "money laundering": Retiree flushes fortune down the toilet. Plumbers ended up retrieving an unknown portion of it for him, and told him he could still exchange the deutshmarks for euros.



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Today, Allawi admitted to what has been obvious for a couple weeks: Iraqi PM Abandons Claim on Another Term. He was Sadr's creature, and the Kurds and Sunni weren't having any. Now we'll see if the Shiites can pick someone without too much baggage.



Later: Looks like the Sunnis have signed off on the new pick: Iraqi PM pick may end impasse One of Allawi's allies, and Reuters describes him as sectarian.



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Business Groups Lament No China Trade Deal. Well, duh. President Hu Jintao's bread is buttered on the side of not giving up anything. China's got political unrest, and the government there is hoping to distract the public with how well the economy is doing. Maybe if President Bush was in a stronger situation, politically, he'd be in shape to make the Chinese give up part of what's going on, but as dedicated as President Bush's domestic opposition is, and with the war on terrorism going on, he just doesn't have manouevering room.



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Ninth Circuit Court goes loony yet again: Court: Schools can ban hurtful T-shirt slogans. If you read the article, the quote from the dissent says it all. The "heckler's veto" is precisely what it is used for in debates concerning such things as affirmative action, whether such groups have special rights, etcetera. If anytime someone disagrees you can shut them out of the debate by claiming "hate speech", you win by default. Yeah, this particular t-shirt wearer was a human sized unitary rectal aperture. But the cure is worse than the disease.



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Looks like Nepal is no closer to a resolution of its problems: Nepal's embattled king promises democracy Unfortunately, the opposition is rejectng it, evidently saying something along the lines of "Democracy is Okay, as long as your side isn't elected."



So taking dictatorial power in response to Maoist rebels (i.e. dedicated to the establishment of a dictatorship) and corruption in elected officials isn't exactly an optimal solution to the problem. Giving in to the rebels is worse.



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About Time! CIA Fires Employee for Alleged Leak. What's the difference between this employee and the president, you ask? All the critical factors. The CIA is supposed to support, not undercut, the policies of the current administration. CIA Employees are not elected representatives of the people for the purpose of making policy. They are appointed subordinates of the president for purposes of carrying out the policies decided upon at a higher level. If the employee had the authority to declassify, why did they not do so rather than leaking to the media? The president has this authority. The CIA employee signed an agreement not to do these things as a condition of employment before they even received any classified information. If they couldn't carry through, why did they sign? Why did they accept appointment?

My heart goes out to Iraq the Model, whose brother-in-law was killed by a team of assassins. He has written a defiant, emotional post on the topic

Kill us, but you won't enslave us.



I believe Patrick Henry would recognize a kindred spirit.



LATER: Big Lizards has a take worth reading.

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Welcome Development Department: Say Anything notes that the tenured professor who led her students in destroying an approved exhibit whose viewpoint she did not agree with has been given retirement a few days early. Not exactly a resounding victory over the worst excesses of the tenure system, but we'll take what we can get. Here was somebody who owes their tenure to the idea that researchers need to be able to examine all aspects of a question, going out and censoring the other side through destruction of their property.



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Via Wizbang, American Thinker notes that contrary to the pravda of the abortionists, fetuses do feel pain.



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Denying the Holocaust is going to get harder: Germany agrees to open Nazi archive. The so-called Bad Arolsen archive covers at least 17 million people sent to concentration camps.



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A remembrance of the Bay of Pigs, and what really happened. What you think you know is likely wrong. A moving tribute to those patriots who fought there.



(Later: Corrected typo)

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Mudville Gazette, whom I probably don't link to enough given how far ranging their coverage on military matters is, has an excellent article on the retired flag officers criticism of Rumsfeld.



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Jihad Watch debunks a soft-peddling of Islamic apostasy law.



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A few days ago, I referenced an excellent essay by Dr. Sanity intended to be Part I of a 3 part essay on dealing with denial. Part II and Part III are now up.



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Armies of Liberation has another article about freedom of the press (or rather lack thereof) in Yemen.



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Big Lizards makes a good case that what voters face is, as always, not a referendum, but a choice, and the Elephants really shouldn't be too worried on that score.



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As he notes, You Can't Make This Stuff Up: Michael Barone notes that the new deputy for nuclear disarmament in Asia is Iran.



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Are you a BANANA? Anne Applebaum in the Washington Post discusses the political opposition to any new energy source.



Captain's Quarters adds his quite worthwhile thoughts.



I stand by what I wrote here. It may take a while, but the worst damage I talk about is not anything like a worst case scenario. I see failure to provide for enough power generation as a problem. If you don't, there's really not much to discuss.



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Victor Davis Hanson covers certain parties trying to hijack the illegal immigration debate.

Carnival of The Clueless

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Michael Yon has gone to Afghanistan. This article covers background and arrival.



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Wizbang has an article entitled "Mayday for America" about the proposed one day strike against the american economy by illegal immigrants. He suggests they stop accepting the benefits as well, and supposed ANSWER will cancel it before May 1.



I agree with Wizbang's assessment, but not the result they predict. I don't think ANSWER is that smart. Of course the impact will be minimal (Even if there is good participation of behalf of the illegals, how important is it that your grass be mowed on May 1 instead of April 30 or May 2? How important is it that concrete was poured May 1, instead of the day before or after?) My prediction is that on May 2nd, you will hear crickets chirp from the direction of ANSWER as they hope hope everybody quickly forgets all about the effects that never materialized.



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I cannot believe this nit: Fetus Cannot Feel Pain, Expert says. How does one get certified as an expert? I've seen a five and a half month preemie that obviously felt pain, and I have two normal girls who could both feel pain within seconds of being born. Does the circuitry for feeling pain suddenly go active as the kid exits the womb? I suppose it's possible, but I really doubt it.



Once upon a time, the first people to be able to count human chromosomes thought there were 48: 24 pairs. There were two or three other researchers who confirmed this number before someone had the guts to say, "Wait a minute, I can only find 23 pairs!" Today, the accepted numbers are 46 chromosomes in 23 pairs. The first set of researchers almost certainly made an honest mistake. The initial follow-up studies should have caught it, but instead found what they wanted or expected to see. Thus, the "Rule of 48", which can be summarized as "scientists may see what they want or expect to see."



This appears to me to be an instance of the Rule of 48.



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Iran Leader: Israel Will Be Annihilated



Now anyone who doesn't believe Iran is building nuclear weapons, please raise your hand.



Anyone who doesn't believe this is a really extreme problem, also raise your hand.



Now those of you with your hands raised kindly explain your reasoning?



I want a confrontation with Iran about as much as I want multiple bullets to the head, but it's looking more and more like not confronting them is suicide.



I was really hoping the Iranian people would be able to deal with their government in time. I no longer believe that's a reasonable hope. Israel does not have the resources to do the job. Everyone else except the United States can be expected to bury their heads in the sand and pretend there is no problem.



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Cheeta turns 74. No, that's not a typo. This is the chimpanzee from the Johnny Weismuller Tarzan movies! Recognized as the oldest chimp in the world.



HT Vodkapundit



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Big Lizards has an excellent article deconstructing both the politics and the tactics of the generals criticising the Rumsfeld Doctrine. Warfare and the nature of effective tactics has changed many times over history. The Greeks changed it with their phalanx, and the Romans tweaked it with their legions. It changed again with the introduction of the stirrup, the crossbow, the longbow, gunpowder, massed artillery, rapid fire weapons, aircraft, armor, etcetera, etcetera. It has changed again, and it will change yet again in the future. Frederick the Great changed warfare forever with only tactical innovations, Napoleon did it again, and it's happened several times since then. Most generals are always prepared to fight the last war, while Rumsfeld was preparing to fight the next war.



If you don't understand this fundamental tension, you might run "Billy Mitchell" through a search engine. Wikipedia has a decent overview of his life, but glosses over the Ostfriesland incident in which the navy accused him of "cheating" because he sunk it with bigger bombs than the was told to use.



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Armies of Liberation has a laundry list of what's wrong with the elections in Yemen.



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Apropos of April 15th, I do understand and support the need for taxes. They are necessary. They are way too high, and way too byzantine, but they are necessary for the operation of a government, which does perform essential functions. Furthermore, I believe we should abolish withholding, so everybody understands exactly how much they really are paying. I use it as a "forced" savings program to force myself to live on less money - the leftover in my tax account for 2005 plus the refund we're getting will fund both daughters 529 plan contributions for this year, plus a major chunk of our Roth accounts (If you're self-employed, always overestimate by a bit). A refund is, nonetheless, not a gift from the government. It is your own money being returned to you. Stop looking at the momentary cash flow and consider how much you paid! This is easier for the self-employed, of course, who have to write that check four times a year.



Abolish witholding, and watch the tax climate in the country change!



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Had my carpet cleaned yesterday. The guy was twenty minutes earlier than his time slot, which meant I was caught not quite prepared, but he did a fantastic job. It looks practically like new carpet. Plus they actually kept very close to their estimate (the only difference was the estimate had forgotten the hall, which cost $9). He even helped me move the furniture around (at least the stuff that's semi-portable - I don't mean bookcases!). I was so happy that I tipped the guy $10 extra. Major difference from the usual routine, which is they get here half an hour after the quoted time expires, quote you low and gouge you for as much extra as they can, plus I've never seen a job done this well. Since I have two kids and two dogs on light colored carpet, it gets ugly quick. I have been looking for carpet cleaners that work like this. I am going to use them again, and recommend them to clients.

Carnival of Debt Reduction Recommended: Mighty Bargain Hunter



Carnival of the Capitalists Recommended: Business of America is Business



Carnival of Investing Recommended: It's Just Money



RINO Sightings Recommended: Decision '08



Carnival of Liberty Recommended: Pubcrawler, Combs SPouts Off



Carnival of Vanities Recommended: Random Yak

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Michael Barone has a point worth making in the latest edition of US News. His column, aptly named "Slouching Towards France" deals with the march of the welfare state, despite its failure everywhere it has been tried. Indeed, it discusses examples such as General Motors, which are symptomatic of a welfare state and yet are not what one thinks of when one says the words, "welfare state." And yet GM started out as a protected entity - protected by the high cost of entry into its market domestically, and by the shield of protectionism that our domestic companies had for many years. The problems with our domestic auto industry have been obvious for at least twenty-five years, and yet the mindset of the union, and to a lesser extent, the management have yet to adjust to the realities of the current market, as if there is hope that tomorrow the government will set the clock of protectionism back forty years by banning all of the foreign competition.



The welfare mentality is easy and seductive. It says that everyone will be taken care of, that no one will be left behind. Everyone will have a comfortable standard of living, no one will be forced to beg. Unfortunately, in order to deliver this, it means that everyone is left behind of where they need to be. Those government programs aren't free; in addition to the money it collects to help these people with problems, it also has to pay the people to do it. Furthermore, the fact that the government is there for everyone who asks means that there is less incentive not to allow the things that would cause you to be left behind were the government not there, and therefore, more people slip into the net, increasing the drag on everyone else. The bureaucrats themselves, wanting to become more important, will do what they can to expand, not reduce, their scope of mission.



Given the realities of the global economy, this is a recipe for disaster.



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I liked this Q and O article on what is wrong with the system. He puts his finger on the greater half of the problem, rent-seeking behavior on behalf of our elected officials. The lesser half: Gerrymandering. The adversarial political climate in this country can be put squarely at the foot of "safe" districts.



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From the online version of my local treekiller. Why immigration reform failed. I'm normally not interested in "blame pieces," but this time the buy/sell got much too blatant.



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Via Mudville Gazette, a front-line reporters take on why the media are determined for Iraq to be reported as a failure (Warning: They have an NSFW advertisement on the page, although it's Hollywood Interrupted, not one of "those sites")



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Indepundit observed the protest against immigration refrom here in San Diego.



Neil Boortz has more on the nature of the problem. As I have said before, we need immigrants. We don't need colonists.



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Dr. Sanity has a good piece about the clinical symptoms of Denial. It's supposed to be a three part series. I look forward to parts II and III. Especially III. Describing the symptoms is useful, but the problem is usually doing away with the problem, not identifying it.



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Speaking of dealing with denial: Mark Steyn. NOW!



Also, Big Lizards debunks "Magical Israel" syndrome.



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Ace of Spades on how to appear neutral even though you're not.



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Thought for the day: If the multiculturalists really meant that all cultures are equally valuable and equally worthy, would they want to ban foxhunting?



Sure it's okay for some cultures to hold women as chattel, and kill them if they try to break out of their narrowly prescribed roles via such means as (gasp) wearing comfortable clothing. It's okay for those same cultures to kill those who wish to leave their dominant religion. Why is it acceptable? They're not Americans/Westerners!



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I know I haven't been writing much, except for my four articles per week on real estate or personal finance. That's probably going to continue for a while, because of stuff taking place off of the internet. Nothing horrible, but it all takes time away from the 24 hours I get per day. I'm hoping that by the end of next week, I'll be able to write a little bit more here, although I did manage to read every entry in the carnivals above.

Carnival of the Vanities has been scammed so badly that Harshly Mellow (no links for people who are acting like weenies) has decided to kill it. There will be two more, then the oldest of all Carnivals is going to die unless someone convinces him otherwise.



I disagree with this, and yet since I have not the time to take it over, there's not much I can do. If you do have the capability to take over the carnival, type the site name (Harshly Mellow) into a search engine and contact him.



Lawrence Simon has done an Avignon edition (People who fix problems caused by other folks without compensation deserve recognition. Thank you Lawrence) Recommended: The Essayist.



I do have a plea, and that is for folks who submit to Carnivals to please remember it's supposed to be a showcase for your best work. Remember, you're trying to get me (among others) to check out the rest of your site. I actually do check out every post (almost - see next sentence) at every Carnival I submit to, and have found several sites I check out regularly because of it. But if you keep submitting garbage that a five year old could have done, you eventually get onto my mental list of sites not to waste my time with. If the post you submit is a link and a one liner, that's not likely to catch my return interest. Ditto thoughtless drivel. If you want my attention, particularly if you want my reader's attention, prove you are worthy of it by putting some effort into it and telling me something other folks aren't. Information, analysis, implications, context, what happens next, something so that folks won't say "that was a waste of my time to read.". I don't always succeed, but I try to make every post say something worth reading. Sad to say that many carnival submitters do not understand this. It isn't a crime, but it is a waste if you submit it to a carnival as your best work.



It's all about signal to noise ratio. If you keep showing me white noise, it's not going to take very long to figure that out.



(And if you have suggestions to improve the s/n ratio here, I am eager to hear them!)

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Here's some good news via Pacesetter Mortgage. FHA is looking to standardize and fix some of what's been wrong with their programs basically forever. I am still not happy with the FHA's requirement for Mortgage insurance on every property, as FHA might have slightly lower rates, but with Mortgage Insurance they usually end up higher, although with tiers it might go lower. This is what loan pricing s all about - risk level. FHA says you're at one risk level, then boosts the quote with mortgage insurance. The subprime loans they say they are competing with don't have mortgage insurance, because the lender priced the loan for the situation. Finally, bonding is a pain and an expense and nobody else requires it, but better bonding than an annual FHA audit, which is a much bigger pain and a much bigger expense. Still, you'd think if they really wanted to serve the public, they'd adopt the same standards that the lenders have adopted in order to better serve the public, rather than simply diminishing the problems (How well do you think "We're not as bad as we used to be!" would go over as a marketing slogan?)



The one thing that reforming the FHA thusly might accomplish is further commoditize the loan market. I regard this as a good thing, as I deliver my loans on the terms I put on the MLDS. Ethical folks win and unethical folks lose, consumers gain and scamsters lose, but it's a small shift for the better, not anything like a magic bullet. Not nearly.



Lest anyone think I'm denigrating it, this is how real improvements are made - many small shifts for the better. Magic bullets are both rare and dangerous, often running afowl of the Law of Unintended Consequences.



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Holy Tear The Cover Off The Anti-War Left's Pravda, Batman! Captain's Quarters covers the translation of an Iraqi document that, if it holds up, should once and for all put to rest the absurd claim that Iraq was not co-operating with Al-Qaeda, as well as the even more absurd one that "Iraq was not our enemy." They were soliciting for a suicide mission against American Interests within their military.



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Would anyone like to tell me why anything less than the death penalty is even under consideration? NYPD detectives convicted of mob murders. They took an official position, and abused it for murder. But no, the maximum penalty they face is life in prison.



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Judas a scapegoat? Ancient 'Gospel of Judas' Translation Sheds New Light on Disciple Actually reading the article though, started me thinking it was a third century equivalent of the JFK assassination conspiracy theorists. Looking in from outside, "secret prayers" does not appear to be consistent with the sort of things that the Christian messiah said and did otherwise.



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Ancient Pyramid Discovered in Mexico Cool, if perhaps not of the same order of importance as the previous article. Also, does it seem as if the AP writer obsessed just a little too much about the Christian thing that's been happening on the site more recently?



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Proving she's got a sense of political self-preservation, McKinney apologizes . Prediction: the whole incident is dropped. Does anybody think that if Joe Average slapped a cop, the case would be dropped after he apologized?



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Students lack basic financial knowledge. There was no real need to study this fact, but the study reveals the depth of the average high school senior's ignorance. A one semester overview of the economic facts should be a requirement to graduate. At least that way young folks will have something to separate out fact from fancy. Reading the financial press without the tools to evaluate whether what they tell you has any basis in reality is an excellent way to get in trouble.



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So Bush ordered Libby to leak the information?



Some folks are going to make a big deal about whether he had the authority to do so. I direct them to this document. If Clinton could delegate that authority, it certainly stands to reason that the President has it in his own right.



Here's another document about declassifying classified information. All along it is a series of Executive Orders setting the policy. Executive Orders come from the President. The President cannot set policy on anything unless he has the authority to do it himself.



Furthermore, if you'll recall, Carter revealed the existence of the Stealth program, and Johnson of the SR-71 (prior to his getting it backwards, it was the RS-71). So does the president have the authority? Yes.



With that said, however, it wasn't the swiftest of moves, politically or ethically. If he was attempting to strike a blow at his critics, it was a cure worse than the disease. Rebutting your critics is not a crime, but there are those who will say it was an abuse of position.



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Cancer Vaccine Works Long Term. Well, not quite. It's really against a cancer causing virus, HPV. But it's still excellent news.



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(singing) Give me two more last chances before you say goodbye! (/singing) U.S.: Iran may face sanctions after two UN warnings And ooh, sanctions! Nuke a few million people, they might up it to a strongly worded communique.



Is there anybody left that thinks the UN actually helps make the world a safer or a better place?



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Politburo Diktat corrects some misapprehensions about Iraq - civilan body count was way up for March. Considering they're in the midst of trying to form their first elected government ever among factions with no history of compromise between them, I may be disappointed but not surprised. Still makes a slow month by the standards of Saddam Hussien's reign.



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Worth Reading: a thousand words or so over at Dan Simmons website



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Armies of Liberation covers the Saleh government trying to hide the budget breakdown from parliament. Excuse me, but aren't they supposed to be the ones appropriating the money?



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Michael Barone has a dose of sanity about the K Street Project.



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The other day, I wrote a piece on the state of our educational system. Captain's Quarters has a piece on the easy, obvious solution of ending the monopoly, which the Democrats can never tolerate, as they get too much of their support from those with stakes in the current educational monopoly.



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"All the News That's Fit to Stage": Michelle Malkin has a round up.



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In case you haven't heard it yet, I like the gag about a hundred or so ordinary citizens showing up in the capitol as "undocumented senators". By the Senate's own logic, they'd have to put them on a "guaranteed path to membership"!

Carnival of Liberty Recommended: Liberty Papers, State of Flux

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Signifying Nothing has an excellent point about trial by politics.



Speaking of Trial by Politics, here's a good (as in beneficial) example. Dignan's 75 Year Plan is going to file to oppose her.



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As an wholehearted believer in the Church of Get The Facts, I have nothing to say but Amen Brother!



And Hallelujah Sister!



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Speaking of facts, Mr. Minority has a few more to add to the immigration debate.



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Via Hugh Hewitt, an article on that Supercavitating torpedo that was in the news today.

Dean's World has a great article about the Ignored Iron Triangle of Power. The money quote:

To sum all this up by a political equation:





Power = capabilities X interest X will



If any of the elements on the right are zero, power is zero, no matter how strong the other elements. If interest and capabilities to defeat an enemy are great, but will appears weak, then so is power.

He also deals with the differences between actual will and perceived will. If your will is perceived to be weak, you will be forced to fight battles that never would have happened if your will had been perceived to be stronger. Every time something happens to weaken the ability, or the perceived ability, of the United States to respond in an appropriate manner, our enemies are encouraged to launch attacks and fight battles that they otherwise would not.



Is it treason to advocate "cut and run from Iraq"? Not unless you're being paid to do so. But every time somebody does so, they become a part of the cause why american servicemembers are killed in subsequent attacks, and Iraqis also. This places a very high bar on what I consider - what is - worthwhile criticism of the Iraq war. Of course, those making the criticisms of the war knows that the ones harmed by it will overwhelmingly vote for the other side, anyway.



And just because it's not treason doesn't mean scoring cheap political points that get our defenders and Iraqi innocents killed is in any way admirable. Quite the opposite, and I hope that those who say they support the troops will suit actions to words in the voting booth this year, as well as eveyone with a friend or relative in the military. It is incorrect to claim that there can be no valid criticism of the war or its handling. But it is also very possible to criticize the war and its conduct without encouraging our foreign enemies, and those who are unable to see the distinction or make the distinction need to be voted out. Such actions will not only improve the quality of the debate, but send a clear message to our enemies that we have the will to carry this through, and therefore save lives because of attacks the enemy is not emboldened to make, and battles that remain unfought.



In short, if you support the troops, don't get them killed needlessly.

This question:

What real estate office can I trust to help buy below market house in (location) California in the year 2006?

brought someone to the site and I have not previously written a real answer to the question.



The short answer is "nobody."



This doesn't have to do with trust. It has to do with the facts of life and bad assumptions.



What is the definition of market price? It is the price at which a willing buyer and a willing seller exchange a property. In other words, what you buy it for is by definition the market price.



Everybody wants to buy real estate for less than it's really worth, just like everyone wants to sell it for more than it's really worth. Mathematically speaking, at least fifty percent of each have to fail, and the fact that you're even asking the question indicates that you have made incorrect assumptions.



Real Estate is not like stocks or bonds. No matter how big or how small your transaction, it's always a one on one transaction. If you are selling, you need to find one buyer willing and able to buy that property for a price you are willing to sell. If you are buying, you need to find one property where the owner is willing to sell at a price you are willing and able to buy it at.



This is not to say that the general market is irrelevant. If someone is pricing a more desirable home lower than you, you've overpriced your property. If the identical condo next door to the one you bought sold for ten percent less, you probably overpaid. But it's not for nothing that the mantra about the three most important things in real estate being "location, location, and location." No two properties are ever identical. Think condos, even. Which would you rather have: The one right next to the parking lot, the mailboxes, and the swimming pool, or the one way in the back where you have to walk a quarter mile from your car, and further from everything else? I assure you that a goodly portion of the population would choose the one you think of as less attractive. It's the choice of the individual buyer, and a real estate agent has to learn how to get the attention of the person who's most likely to be interested in that property.



I keep telling people that getting a good price at sale time is nice for both the buyer and the seller, but the really important thing is your amount of time in the investment. Let's go back a very few years. Homes in my neighborhood were worth maybe $180,000 at the time, and condos were worth maybe $65,000. Had people going around making low ball offers on everything. Offered maybe $55,000 for the condos, $150,000 for the homes. Nobody who wasn't desperate wanted to sell, of course, and that's just what they were checking for - desperation. Had they offered something vaguely reasonable, say $60,000 for the condos or $170,000 for the home, they likely would have gotten a property. At least one group of these people ended up not buying anything. Fast forward five years. Those same condos are worth $275,000, and those same homes are selling for $500,000. If the thought of missing out on $210,000 profit for the condos because you couldn't make $217,000 bothers you, then you seem pretty rational to me. If, on the other hand, the thought of missing out on an extra $20,000 you're not going to get for the single family residence makes you want to just throw $330,000 base profit (tripling your money!) out the window, please go waste someone else's time.



There is nothing wrong with desperation sales and offers that are desperation checks, so long as you are willing and able to then proceed to something more reasonable. Nobody wants to sell to somebody looking to flip a property, but they do want to sell for a reasonable price. That's why the property is on the market. Somebody offers me (or my client) fifteen percent less than the property is worth, I usually write something like "offer rejected. Why would I (my client) want to give you fifteen percent of my investment's value?" and append a list of comparables. Counteroffering just wastes time when the offer isn't even in the right ballpark. The ones who can come back with a reasonable offer want the property, or they wouldn't have made the offer. The ones just looking for the desperation sale aren't going to bother.



Now some potential buyers are only interested in desperation scenarios. That's fine, but you're going to work awfully hard and put in a lot of offers before you get one, and the ones with the most potential for quick profit are going to be the ones where there is a lot of work to be done. Additionally, right now the market just won't support CondoFlippers Inc.



Yes, I believe in hard bargaining. Judging from evidence I see around me, I'm one of a small percentage who does. But I'm willing to come from a reasonable starting position, although I do love it when my clients decide they want to put an offer in on a discount agent's listing, because the client I'm acting as buyer's agent for is going to think I walk on water when the transaction is over, while the sellers are going to find out first hand the truth of the adage "You get what you pay for".



Lest you think that your negotiation discount equals your profit, it isn't. It's a small part of your profit. Let's say you get the condo for $250,000 or you won't buy it at all, even though comparables are selling for $275,000. Let's say you intend to flip for $290,000, not that that's going to happen in this market, but let's say you succeed anyway. Your net is something like $268,000, after spending $253,000 or so to buy, and you spent about $5000 making the payments on the mortgage even if it did sell right away (more likely, given the realities, that you spend the entire "profit" on the mortgage payment!)



Now let's say, instead, that the market collapses twenty percent the day after you buy, down to $220,000. If you have a sustainable mortgage and bring in a tenant, your cash flow should be even or positive. Hold on to the darned thing for five years, and at historical seven percent average per year, the property is worth $308,000. Hold it ten years and it's worth $432,000 under the same assumptions. The first number gives you as much profit as the flipper even has a theoretical chance for, while the latter blows the flipper out of the water. Even after a price collapse, and because you've been in a sustainable situation this whole time, it really isn't critical how long the prices take to come back, because you're not under the gun of a deadline. So long as you have a sustainable cash flow, the risk is essentially nonexistent. It's when you have an unsustainable cash flow that you've got to worry. Say like, an empty unit where you've got to make the mortgage payment without rent because you're trying to flip it.



In fact, given a sustainable cash flow, unless property values collapse and stay down forever, the question is closer to when you're going to cash out and how much, rather than if. Southern California Real Estate has always moved in cycles. What's down today is up forty percent five years from now. The trick is being able to bridge the gap between now and then.



If some of the above seems like I'm attacking the "bigger fool" theory of real estate, consider this: Somebody's always the last, biggest, fool in line, and until you find a buyer, that person is you. It should be an agent's responsibility to see to it that their clients aren't the only ones without a chair when the music stops. For all too many of them, their thinking stops at the receipt of the commission check.



Caveat Emptor.

UPDATED here

Carnival of Investing Recommended: Frugal Wisdom from Wenchypoo's Warehouse, Ask Uncle Bill



Carnival of the Capitalists Recommended: Entrepreneur's Journey



RINO Sightings Recommended: World According to Nick, Armies of Liberation

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If you're a regular here, this is about as surprising as falling rocks: Some homeowners struggle to keep up with adjustable rates If you read the article carefully, all of the loans they are talking about are short term adjustable. Although right now 30 year fixed rate loan rates are very comparable to things like a 5/1 ARM, that is not generally or even usually the case. And I got a real laugh out of the last line: "But within 24 hours of a call from a reporter, Saxon agreed to give the couple a fixed-rate loan at 7%." Some favor. If they're A paper borrowers, that's a three points to the originator loan today, not counting what they'll earn selling it on the secondary market. In other words, assuming they don't stick the poor borrowers with a brand new prepayment penalty, the bank just earned at least $5000 for their "generosity", assuming a $100,000 loan. If they put a prepayment penalty on it, you're looking at maybe $9000. Multiply accordingly for larger mortgages.



One of these days, reporters may learn. But don't hold your breath.



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Obama Strikes Out at Bush's Energy Policy



I'll concede that this is a reasonable idea, at least by government standards. Don't support it, but that's the topic for a whole essay, if Perry doesn't beat me to it. I definitely don't see the need or the advantage in attacking the President.



Reading the article, it appears as if he's calling for the government to shoulder the costs of the automakers retirees provided the automakers then turn around and use the savings for alternative energy research.



Okay, bad idea economically. Very bad idea economically. Good idea politically. Why not just propose it as an "improvement"?



Last I checked, psychologists called this phenomenon "obsession" It's not a sign of a healthy mind, I'm afraid.



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Wizbang makes a point that cannot be made too often.



Ditto Vodkapundit



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Iraq the Model has two posts about the formation of a government in Iraq. The first deals with the hard line attitude of the leader of the party that got the largest number of votes, and the second deals with how power is slipping away from him due his his inability or unwillingness to compromise.



Strategy Page has more on the situation.



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Dean's World details some scary stuff with regards to voting machines and fraud, and how easy it was to buffalo Gimme Carter and his election rubberstamping "monitoring" cohorts.



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Argghhh! visited the Korean War Memorial in Seoul, and I think it's worth taking a gander at his pictures.

Bullet dodged, for now. Mellon was doing okay for a few days, then lost the use of her back legs again. Vet gave her a shot, and me some medicine for her for later. Less than $100, and she's feeling good enough to walk, and she's not in pain. As long as this continues, I'm happy to keep my sweet little dog.

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I ran across the idea of the infinite monkeys on infinite typewriters evenutally producing the works of Shakespeare again the other day. Actually, since there are only a finite number of possibilities, an infinite number of monkeys would produce the works of Shakespeare practically instantaneously.



On the other hand, some finite number of monkeys (say 100) at a finite number of coding consoles would take some real time - eons - on the universal scale in order to come out with a perfect product.



Methinks Windows is the result of such a product being rushed to market.



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Dean's World has posted Rudy Rummel's Democratic Peace. If you haven't done so in the past, I suggest you go check it out. As far as I can tell, this theory is completely compatible with observed outcomes from observed situations - in other words, as close to experimental verification as we're likely to get.



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Looks like Right Wing News has the FAQs on illegal immigrants.



Glenn Reynolds has more thoughts worth reading. "The debate stinks." Indeed.



Q and O has more. I've long been aware of the racists of MEChA. At one point I tried getting them banned from a campus by simply changing the names of the races involved in their constitution and informing people that this organization was already accredited on campus. Alas, 'twas the late seventies, and everyone knew that only white people could be racists.



Victor Davis Hanson has an essay worth reading.



Some of my thoughts are here, but I must always observe that it is by your actions that your intentions are truly known. The actions of the protest organizers and protestors this week has done them more damage in the court of public opinon than all of the above people could in a hundred years.





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For those who have complete faith in the power of confessions of guilt, read aTypical Joe's Innocent people confess to crimes they did not do



This is part of what we call the need for transparency. If everyone is scrutinized in everything they do, then the wrongdoers will be found. The more authority, the more potential for abuse, and therefore the more detailed the scrutiny.



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Willisms has a regular feature on Social Security Reform. Every week the counter gets larger as to what saying no to social security reform has cost. This week, he's talking about the socialist who dreamed up social security. Ya know, I don't give a rat's @$$ about that. It guilt by association. What I do care about is fixing a system that cannot endure through the lifetimes of today's workers.



Here's a clue to the Donkeys who think "Just say no!" to reform is a rational strategy: What happens when it becomes obvious to ninety percent of the voters that you were not only wrong, but knew you were wrong for decades and still obstructed reform, thereby making the damage orders of magnitude worse?



The base you've been living on will disappear faster than pancakes in an IHOP on Sunday morning, and unlike the IHOP, they won't make any more. Overnight you're going to go from "the Party of Compassion" to "The Party of False Promises."



The day of reckoning is coming before my younger daughter gets to college. When that happens, there won't be a Donkey (or former Donkey, or Donkey apologist) elected to office ever again. I've been seeing actuarial workups since the late 1970s that told us how bad this problem was going to get, and all along the entire federal government has been playing Peter Pan, as if a failure to believe in the problem would solve it. Now we have one nationally elected politician who's willing to do something about it, and instead of gratefully taking cover behind his shield, the Donkeys have joined in the crowd slinging darts, trying to derail a movement that makes social security sustainable. Without that, everyone is going to get hurt - especially those who need it the most.



Those Donkeys derailing Social Security reform must have retainers to shave them - because I don't know how they can look themselves in the mirror.



On a related note, HT to enrevanche for the link to this OpinionJournal piece called A Plan to Replace the Welfare State. Not sure I agree, but it's worth reading for the way it challenges assumptions.



Here's another piece you should take note of from Social Security Choice. Seems the Donkeys don't take the lockbox very seriously.



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Target Centermass has a long sad article about the amalgamation of the Highland Regiments in the British Army. It's been a long time coming; the population of the Highlands has been decreasing for centuries and with the British fielding a smaller army overall, it was inevitable. Still a sad day when there is no more Black Watch, no more Argyll and Sutherland (themselves the merger of two former regiments), no more of any of the storied regiments of Highland Troops, just battalions of one amalgamated regiment.



On the other hand, HT to Mudville Gazette for this story of an Islamic nation moving further into the modern era: First women earn wings in an Islamic air force



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Via Roger Simon comes this gem of a tale of statist creep.



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via Respectful Insolence comes a link to the Pigasus Awards. No, that's not a typo.



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Shocks Seen in New Math for Pensions. It's About Time!



Now how about doing the same thing for governmental obligations?



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Big Lizards has the kind of post on the real government that makes you go "Hmmm." It makes a lot of sense. Do I endorse it completely? No. Is it a useful model for experimental predictions? Yes.



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Looks like Captain's Quarters has seen the light of transparency, at least as it relates to campaign finance. Even if you grant the benefits (which I do not) trying to keep the money out of campaign finance is futile. Instead focus on keeping it transparent enough to see who is supporting who (or what) and you have solved the problem.



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No good ideas for an April Fools Joke, and it's dangerous at a site like this, anyway. Could well undermine any credibility I may have. But Eidelblog and La Shawn Barber have good oes.